Trailer orders dove in February, but the real question is: What will tariffs mean to trailer builders and customers? And will a potential rollback of looming emissions requirements for Class 8 trucks change how fleets prioritize their cap-ex spend?
The spot market’s on fire if you’re a flatdecker…which again could be attributed to a spike in steel shipments ahead of tariffs. The news isn’t so good for van and reefer haulers relying on the spot market, which continue to see a decrease in rates.
The impact of tariffs on the trailer market
Trailer orders dropped 18% in February, but were up 3% year over year, according to preliminary data from FTR. It was the fourth straight month of orders exceeding 20,000 units, coming in at 20,874.
Trailer orders are now outpacing those for Class 8 trucks, in contrast to last year when many fleets prioritized ordering power units over trailers. The impact of steel, aluminum, and other tariffs on the trailer industry remains to be seen – but could be dramatic.
“New and pending U.S. tariffs, along with retaliatory measures, pose significant risks to the North American trailer market,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles with FTR.
“Tariffs will affect not only imported trailers but also domestic trailers, depending on the extent of imported materials, and the market effects could be broad-based. OEMs face higher production costs, tighter margins, and potentially slowing or stagnant demand. Suppliers may encounter supply chain disruptions and increased financial strain. Fleets could see higher trailer prices and longer lead times, prompting delayed purchases or shifts toward investing in power units once again. Overall, tariff-related uncertainty presents strategic challenges industrywide.”
Moyer said the industry forecaster will also be keeping a close eye on the U.S. government’s position on EPA rules for Class 8 trucks, particularly the 2027 NOx emission rules.
Any change, he said, could disrupt “fleet equipment strategies that otherwise presumably would have led to fleets prioritizing power unit orders over trailers by late this year, if not earlier.”
ACT Research reported an order intake of 18,000 units.
“A sequential drop in net orders was expected, as we move toward the weaker order months of the annual intake cycle, and from that perspective, February did not disappoint,” said Jennifer McNealy, director, commercial vehicle market research and publications.
“It’s also no surprise that data are lower than the February 2024 intake, given the uncertainty currently plaguing the U.S. commercial vehicle industry and the economy at large. Despite the ambiguity that continues to buttress the trailer market pause we’ve seen for the last year, made worse by the constant policy shifting of the last few months, orders are expected to be placed but at a subdued level throughout 2025. That said, this is not a shift in ACT’s expectations, as weak trailer demand is the result of weak for-hire truck market fundamentals, low used equipment valuations, relatively full dealer inventories, and high interest rates impeding stronger activity in the near term.”
Flatbed rates driving spot market
Truckstop and FTR Transportation Intelligence reported strong spot market flatbed rates for the week ended March 14, offset by continued softness in the dry van and reefer segments.
Flatdeckers enjoyed their sharpest rate increase since October, with the highest rates seen since last June.
On the other end of the spectrum, dry van spot rates hit their lowest level since last September and reefer rates hit their lowest point since June 2020. Flatbed load postings were also up, in contrast to van and reefer load volumes, which both declined.
Truckstop speculates that the strong flatdeck demand could be due to an increase in elevated levels of steel imports in advance of the U.S.-imposed tariffs.
“If steel imports have been the main driver, a drop-off in volume is likely,” Truckstop warned.
The Market Demand Index rose to 96.8, its strongest level since June 2022.
February spot market volumes, rates declined
Looking at the month of February as a whole, DAT Freight & Analytics reported van and reefer volumes were down 8.5% and 11.3%, respectively. Flatbed volumes edged up 0.4% on the month.
“Freight shippers and brokers were eager to put February behind them, despite favorable spot rates for van and reefer freight,” said Ken Adamo, DAT chief of analytics. “However, uncertainty about the economy and the artificial acceleration of freight movements ahead of tariff deadlines may lead to a flattened peak shipping season in spring and early summer.”
As for rates, van was down 11 cents from January to $2.04/mile (all figures USD), reefer rates down 18 cents/mile to $2.36 and flatbed rates ticked up a penny to $2.45/mile.
Contract pricing remained steady in February, DAT noted, with the spread between contract and spot rates widening substantially on the month. “An increasing gap between spot and contract rates indicates a shift in pricing power toward shippers and brokers,” DAT warned.
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