The latest ACT Research For-Hire Trucking Index reflects ongoing weakness for carriers, as the effect of tariffs is beginning to be seen in the data.
But shippers saw a more favorable March, thanks largely to falling diesel prices.
ACT Research’s For-Hire Trucking Index reflects ongoing weakness
The April version of ACT Research’s For-Hire Trucking Index reflected weak freight volumes and decreased capacity.
For the second straight month, the Volume Index was weak, with a reading of 43.4, down slightly from March.
“Even with some degree of pre-tariff shipping happening, it appears the adverse effects of tariffs are already starting to play out,” said Carter Vieth, research analyst. “Declining container ship traffic suggests broadly weak volume will continue in the near term, but the 90-day step down in US/China tariffs is spurring significant activity into Q3.”
The Pricing Index dropped 12.1 points in April, to levels not seen since August 2023, thanks to softening demand following the surge in pre-tariff imports seen in March.
“The 12.1-point m/m decline was the third largest in the survey’s 15-year history,” Vieth said. “The supply side should contract as private fleets end their expansion, tariffs add to equipment costs, and for-hire fleet financials are impacted. However, pricing uncertainty remains elevated with trade policy changing.”
The Capacity Index dropped 4 points to 47.1. “Unsurprisingly given weak for-hire profits, heightened uncertainty, and higher equipment costs, capacity decreased as fleets choose to delay, or in some cases, opt out completely of new equipment purchases in 2025,” Vieth reasoned. “Further capacity declines are likely, a necessary component for the cycle to begin an upswing. Unfortunately for fleets, lower demand related to tariffs will likely prolong the recovery.”
Shipper conditions improved in March
Shippers enjoyed better conditions in March, with FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index entering positive territory, albeit barely, at 0.1. That’s up from a -0.3 reading in February.
Thank falling diesel prices and slightly less challenging utilization, FTR reports.
“Uncertainty over tariffs is a risk for the economy, but an expected sluggishness in the freight market in the near term should bring some benefits to shippers in terms of fluidity and pricing,” said FTR’s vice-president of trucking, Avery Vise.
“The longer-term consequences are less clear, however. For example, one consequence of a sharp drop in freight volume might be loss of trucking capacity, which could lead to a tighter market in 2026. Another issue to watch is whether stricter enforcement of truck drivers’ English language skills results in a meaningful hit to the supply of drivers.”
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