June saw a close balance between supply and demand, according to data from ACT Research, with easing freight volumes and an increase in capacity.
But in more recent weeks, Truckstop reports U.S. spot market rates are retreating – even in the most recent week, which saw diesel prices rise.
ACT: Trucking supply and demand move closer to balance in June
The U.S. for-hire trucking market moved closer to balance in June as freight volumes eased slightly and carriers responded to improving rates by adding capacity, according to ACT Research.
ACT’s For-Hire Trucking Volume Index slipped 1.8 points from May’s cycle high to 65.9, while the Capacity Index climbed 1.5 points to 55, its highest level in 43 months. As a result, the Supply-Demand Balance Index fell to 60.9 from 64.2 in May.
ACT Research Analyst Carter Vieth said industrial demand continues to benefit from data center construction, while lower energy prices and reduced tariffs should support retail inventory restocking in the months ahead. He added that vocational and flatbed trucking remain among the strongest market segments.
Vieth said higher freight rates are encouraging larger carriers to begin expanding capacity, even as overall industry capacity remains constrained by Class 8 truck sales that are below replacement levels. He expects capacity growth to accelerate later this year as stronger spot market rates feed into contract pricing and fleets begin replacing aging equipment ahead of EPA 2027 emissions regulations.
Despite a generally soft goods economy, Vieth said tightening capacity has continued to support for-hire carriers, while driver availability improved as fleets rolled out higher pay packages.
Spot rates fall despite diesel price surge
U.S. spot truckload rates fell sharply in the week ended July 24 despite a spike in diesel prices, according to Truckstop.
The overall market rate declined 2.5% week over week to $3.38 per mile, even as the national average diesel price climbed 27 cents to $5.13 per gallon. Diesel prices have risen about 56 cents over the past two weeks.
Truckstop’s Market Demand Index (MDI) fell 16.6 points to 134.4 as load postings dropped 6.7% and truck postings increased 4.8%. Despite the weekly decline, the MDI remained 70.8% higher than the same week last year.
Dry van, refrigerated and flatbed markets all posted lower rates. Dry van rates slipped 2.2% to $2.82 per mile, refrigerated rates fell 2.3% to $3.29, and flatbed rates dropped 2.5% to $3.55. Specialized freight rates declined 2.1% to $3.38 per mile.
Truckstop noted July is typically a weak month for spot rates and said the Week 29 decline was the largest for that period since 2022. However, historical trends suggest dry van and refrigerated rates typically begin stabilizing during the current week (Week 30).
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