Class 8 truck orders surged in December, but analysts warn against reading too much into it, since freight fundamentals remain weak.
Trucking conditions also improved, thanks to reduced capacity and improving rates and utilization. And the spot market rang in the new year with multi-year highs for van and reefer rates.
Class 8 orders get a boost
Truck buyers returned in December, placing 42,000 orders. That’s the strongest month since October 2022, up 108% from November and 21% year over year, according to preliminary data from FTR.
On-highway trucks accounted for the largest share of the percentage gains versus the previous month, but vocational truck orders also jumped. While it’s encouraging news for truck makers, orders from September through December were still 22% off year-ago levels.
FTR says the order strength was due to improved policy visibility on both tariffs and emissions regulations. The EPA is expected to propose revisions to the 2027 NOx rule in March or April that will retain the original implementation date and NOx limits.
“Despite greater policy clarity, freight demand remains soft, fleet profitability is constrained, and capital spending discipline persists amid rising costs,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles with FTR. “As a result, December’s order strength likely reflects the release of deferred orders along with the early stages of a modest EPA 2027 NOx pre-buy rather than a broader demand inflection. A more durable recovery in equipment demand will require a sustained improvement in underlying economic and freight market conditions.”
ACT Research reported 42,700 orders but also took a cautionary tone when assessing the strong order month.
“After spending most of 2025 in the doldrums, amid stagnant freight rates and beset by policy and regulatory uncertainty, new vehicle demand jolted awake in December,” said Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research.
“A firmer economic foundation, increasingly aged fleets, and the certainty of higher costs and new technologies in 2027 were the impetus, in our opinion, for the sudden change of heart. As trucking fundamentals remain thin, if improving, we view December’s Class 8 result as overstating the improvement.”
Trucking conditions improved in November
FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index climbed in November to 2.14 from a near-neutral 0.89 reading in October. Improving freight rates and capacity utilization were the factors driving the improvement.
“The latest available data indicates a substantial reduction of trucking capacity over the past year – a conclusion supported by stronger spot market rates than trend over the past month or so,” said Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking.
“It’s quite possible that capacity has bottomed out, so the attention now is squarely on freight demand, which still looks sluggish with both upside and downside potential. Trucking companies cannot get to sustained margin recovery on capacity reductions alone.”
Spot market continues to strengthen
Truckers relying on the U.S. spot market for freight were also feeling better in recent weeks.
Truckstop.com and FTR Transportation Intelligence reported that “the peak season for freight pushed spot rates to multi-year highs” but it warned they would traditionally settle in the coming weeks, barring severe weather.
The week ended Jan. 2 saw reefer rates enjoy their biggest week-over-week increase since May, reaching their highest level since February 2022. Dry van rates also improved and have now risen 44 cents/mile over the past nine weeks and are at their strongest level since the beginning of 2023.
Flatbed rates maintained solid year-over-year comparisons, truckstop.com reported.
“Aside from any distortions caused by weather, the next few weeks should offer some insight into the durability of December’s market strength relative to performance before the holidays,” truckstop.com reported. “Load volume recovered from the lull during Christmas week in all equipment types, although only refrigerated had a more substantial increase in the latest week than the scope of the decrease during Christmas week.”
The significant rise in load postings and slight decrease in truck postings led to a Market Demand Index of 81.4 — marking a substantial increase compared to Christmas week but typical for most of 2025.
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