The trucking market is likely to begin feeling the pain of the trade war soon, after seeing a bump in volumes as shippers rushed to pull forward shipments to get ahead of tariffs set to come into effect in early April.
The trade war will almost certainly extend the long-running freight recession, ACT Research warns. Equipment costs are also set to rise.
However, the Canadian spot market has just closed a strong Q1, according to Loadlink. And flatdeckers continue to see rates climb.
Tariffs will extend freight recession
Recession-weary trucking companies will have to buckle in for more turmoil, as the trade war is set to extend the for-hire freight recession, ACT Research reports.
It notes that 20-25% of U.S. surface freight is involved in international trade and that higher equipment costs are inevitable due to tariffs.
“As Q2 begins, retail sales are still brisk as consumers snap up pre-tariff prices, but freight demand fundamentals face major self-inflicted tariff headwinds,” said Tim Denoyer, vice-president and senior analyst of ACT Research.
“The pre-tariff inventory stocking period will soon reverse, and consumption will fall as prices rise. We expect a few more months of brisk demand for pre-tariff goods, followed by a tariff adjustment period with lower goods demand. Freight is very much in the crosshairs of the trade war. The trucking industry also faces considerable supply shocks related to new U.S. government policy. Both equipment and labor supply are affected, and this is likely to press truckload rates up after tariffs take their toll.”
Index shows loosening capacity
ACT Research’s For-Hire Trucking Index showed a loosening of capacity in March, with volumes dropping 4.5 points from February as capacity increased.
Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research, said, “While spot load postings were strong in March, this is consistent with ongoing softness in the Cass Freight Index. The weak reading in our survey, may be related to the later timing of the Chinese New Year this year, creating some sub-seasonality effects from February to March. Additionally, while inventory has been pulled ahead, uncertainty may be causing businesses to sit on inventory longer than usual, as they take a wait-and-see approach to current proceedings. Freight volumes will likely remain choppy as pre-tariff inventories are drawn down.”
The Capacity Index rose four points.
“Steel and aluminum tariffs, reciprocal tariffs, and tariffs on China will directly add to the cost of tractors and trailers. The increase in for-hire capacity in March was likely fleets planning ahead of equipment price increases,” Vieth said. “While freight fundamentals don’t yet call for for-hire capacity expansion, the inflationary cost of tariffs may lead some carriers to pull deliveries ahead. Many, though, have taken a wait and see approach to capital spending.”
Trucking conditions improved slightly in February
FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index rose in February to -0.21, but remained in negative territory. It read -2.56 in January.
The improvement stemmed from stronger volumes and utilization and smaller increases in fuel costs, FTR reported.
“With global tariffs and a full-fledged trade war against China, we have reduced our economic and freight forecasts due to expectations of higher inflation and interest rates and a weaker labor market coupled with a payback from elevated imports in the first quarter to avoid tariffs,” said Avery Vise, FTR’s vice-president of trucking. “With this change, we expect that near-term truck freight market conditions will be more challenging for carriers, postponing a sustained recovery until early next year.”
Canadian spot market was strong in March
If you’re looking for a bright spot, the Canadian spot market was strong in March, and, in fact, throughout the first quarter, Loadlink Technologies reported.
“The first quarter of 2025 showcased exceptionally favorable conditions for carriers, marked by significant year-over-year growth in load volumes and tightening truck availability,” Loadlink said. “The quarter was characterized by robust cross-border activity, steady domestic freight, and some of the tightest capacity metrics since the peak pandemic shipping levels of early 2022.”
However, volumes were down 16% in March compared to February. Loadlink noted increasingly strong freight volumes toward the end of March, likely as shippers look to get ahead of tariffs slated for April.
“Loadlink’s strong freight activity in the first quarter of the year shows that its healthy balance of capacity and loads continues to provide many opportunities for carriers operating on the Canadian spot market,” the company said.
The truck-to-load ratio was 1.32, a 60% year-over-year improvement for carriers.
“The Canadian freight market has seen impressive growth so far in 2025, as both domestic and cross-border freight volumes jumped from last year’s volumes,” the company said. “March alone saw a 40% increase in freight volumes compared to the same time last year. While there was a 16% decline from February, this follows usual seasonal patterns, where demand usually dips after the early-year surge.
“Although the first quarter saw tremendous improvement, the recent tariffs have exerted uncertainty and pressure on carriers, brokers, and manufacturers alike. As a result, cross-border trade will be severely impacted and reduced cross-border demand may follow soon. Due to enhanced inspections and border-crossing complexities from the tariffs, freight processing may be slower, and more trucks could be gridlocked, which will negatively impact delivery schedules. The volatility and uncertainty of these impacts can be either a benefit or a drawback. Shippers and brokers may require more capacity to overcome possible delays and ensure operations continue smoothly, or the opposite is possible, where they reduce operations to limit risk exposure.”
Flatbed rates continue to rise
In the U.S., flatbed rates continue to rise while van rates fall. For the week ended April 18, dry van rates fell to their lowest level since April 2024, according to Truckstop and FTR. Rates for van haulers were less than two cents/mile stronger than in June 2020.
Reefer rates rose strongly, reaching their highest levels in 10 weeks, while flatbed rates rose for their 10th consecutive week to their highest levels since October 2022.
Load postings decreased for the second straight week following 11 weeks of gains. Flatbed volumes fell most sharply, suggesting strong volumes in February and March may reflect shippers’ efforts to pull ahead imports ahead of tariffs.
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