ACT Research reports that 2025 is likely to be another challenging year for carriers and the OEMs that serve them, due to ongoing economic uncertainty.
And spot market data showed signs of weakness in both Canada and the U.S.
Choppy seas ahead
ACT Research has reported that economic uncertainty will create “another challenging year for for-hire carriers and the commercial vehicle industry.”
In its latest North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook, the forecaster noted the industry was already on shaky ground as it entered 2025.
“Tractor market demand was already under pressure from uncertainty alone, but preliminary data show the weaker economic outlook is now weighing further on demand,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst. “Preliminary Class 8 order data for April of 7,600 units, a 52% year-over-year decline, represented a 59-month low, a level unseen since the onset of the pandemic, when uncertainty was comparably high.”
Vieth noted the current administration’s stance on looming emissions regulations could be a silver lining.
“Trump’s EPA, while still on the fence for the EPA’s Clean Truck mandate in 2027, has signaled that GHG-3 is viewed as regulatory overreach and unlikely to survive, allowing forecasts to float higher,” he said.
“In addition to possibly seeing some production moved back to the U.S., the industry is likely racing to add as much inventory as they can before tariffs are fully enacted. Hence, while we cut our forecasts and lower 2025 expectations, tariffs and the threat of more to come are actually boosting activity in the near term. As is always the case with pulling activity forward, there are paybacks.”
Canada’s spot market weakened in April
A strong first quarter on the Canadian spot market was followed by a sluggish April, as the reality of tariffs sunk in. Loadlink Technologies saw a 42% decline in load postings compared to March, which saw a spike as shippers raced to beat the imposition of tariffs.
Year over year, April volumes were down 15%, Loadlink reported.
“In April, Loadlink’s spot market witnessed a substantial decline in outbound freight from Canada entering the U.S. Inbound volumes were also down but not to the extent of outbound,” the company reported.
“Intra-Canadian volumes saw smaller declines that were not as significant and were mostly due to seasonality. Equipment availability saw decent gains into April, but overall truck volumes into 2025 have been at the lowest seen since 2018, providing a healthier balanced truck-to-load ratio despite decreased load volumes last month.”
There were 2.85 trucks for every posted load in April, higher than the 1.32 truck-to-load ratio seen in March.
“While this reflects a slower freight market, brokers have greater access to available trucks, giving them more options when moving freight,” Loadlink said. “As demand picks up again, carriers who stay informed and prepared will be well-positioned to handle the next surge in load volumes. Compared to April 2024, this year’s ratio improved by 21%.”
U.S. spot market sees rates drop
The story wasn’t much better south of the border. Truckstop and FTR Transportation Intelligence reported weaker rates for the week ended May 9.
Dry van spot rates reached their lowest level since June 2020, while reefer rates suffered their sharpest drop in the past 12 weeks. Flatbed rates saw their largest week-over-week drop since June 2023, declining for the third straight week – the first time that’s happened since November.
We should have better news to report next week.
“Higher spot rates during the current week are essentially guaranteed due to the annual International Roadcheck roadside inspection event, which [ran] May 13-15,” Truckstop reported.
“Many truck drivers take time off during Roadcheck to avoid the hassle and scrutiny of additional roadside inspections, and the result invariably is a spike in spot rates.”
With load availability falling sharply and truck availability rising, the Market Demand Index fell to 77.4, the lowest level since mid-February.
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