Increasing optimism for truckers has them digging into their wallets to order new Class 8 trucks, while a surge in data center construction is boosting vocational truck demand.
The U.S. and Canadian spot markets remain steady. But shippers are about to take it on the chin, FTR warns, due to improving freight conditions and a sharp increase in diesel prices.
Class 8 order lethargy has passed
ACT Research points to a strong rebound in Class 8 truck orders as a sign truck buyers are becoming increasingly optimistic.
“In our view, the rise in spot freight rates has given deep-pocketed, large fleets confidence that 2026 will be an improvement from the past three years spent in the trough and is arguably the most important factor driving improved Class 8 order activity. Class 8 orders totaled 30,800 units in January, up 20% year over year, and preliminary February orders totaled 46,200 units, jumping 156% year over year,” said Ken Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst. “While weather has certainly provided a kick, the cumulative effect of three-plus years of whittling away at capacity is driving a primarily supply-, rather than demand-driven, recovery.”
Vieth noted more clarity around EPA27 emissions regulations is likely helping to drive orders. He also said vocational truck demand should get tailwinds thanks to the rise in data center construction.
“With the four biggest technology companies in the U.S. set to deploy $650 billion in capital toward data centers and associated AI buildout needs in 2026, the vocational market appears poised to continue benefitting from strong secular tailwinds that show little sign of slowing in the short term,” Vieth said. “Additionally, after pulling back on expected prebuying in 2025 due to regulatory and trade uncertainty, vocational orders, like tractor, are benefitting from EPA27 clarity.”
Canada’s spot market driven by southbound freight
Freight volumes on Canada’s spot market increased 2% in February, according to the latest data from Loadlink Technologies, thanks largely to demand for southbound cross-border freight to the United States.
Truck availability tightened, bringing the truck-to-load ratio to 1.20 trucks per load, from 1.37 in January. However, that’s up against year-ago levels, reflecting higher capacity than at this time last year.
Tightening capacity and strong southbound freight volumes put carriers in the driver’s seat in February, Loadlink reported, with more loads to choose from and stronger footing from which to negotiate.
“We saw outbound demand accelerate faster than most expected in February. With fewer trucks available, it created real opportunity for carriers to leverage. For brokers, early outreach is key, as those who started coverage earlier on priority cross-border lanes were better positioned to secure consistent trucks,” said James Reyes, general manager at Loadlink.
Flatbed rates reach highest levels since October 2022
The flatbed segment continues to lead gains in U.S. spot market pricing, according to data from Truckstop.com and FTR for the week ended March 6. In fact, flatbed rates hit their highest levels since October 2022, having risen in 15 of the past 16 weeks.
They now sit at their highest year-over-year increases since April 2022.
“The source of flatbed’s rate and volume strength in recent months is unclear, but both largely coincide with stronger manufacturing production as reported by the Federal Reserve,” Truckstop.com concluded. “Greater manufacturing output, coupled with continued data center construction, is likely to be a major component, exacerbated by sectoral capacity that remains tight.”
Dry van and reefer rates declined in the most recent week but remain stronger than in recent years.
“Although load volume increased only modestly, a notable decline in truck postings – possibly related to soaring diesel prices – resulted in a Market Demand Index of 161.6, which is the highest level since March 2022,” Truckstop.com noted.
Trucking conditions improved drastically in January
FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index jumped to 9.3 in January from a 4.85 reading in December, marking its highest reading since February 2022. Credit stronger freight rates and volumes and improved equipment utilization for the improvement.
“Surging diesel prices in the wake of military operations in the Middle East will temper overall financial conditions for trucking companies in the near term, though even that development arguably will tighten capacity further by forcing out many of the weakest players,” said Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking.
“However, much stronger freight rates and rising utilization probably will keep most operations afloat, and the longer-term recovery in trucking looks solid. Economic indicators point to an industrial sector recovery, which is key to trucking’s rebound as well. Carriers dependent on consumer spending, though, face more risks as rising gasoline prices add to consumers’ stress from stubborn inflation, a weakening job market, and tighter cash reserves.”
Shippers, on the other hand…
If it’s good for truckers, it must be bad for shippers, right? Well, not always. But in this case, yes. The Shippers Conditions Index fell to its worst levels in four years and FTR warns it could get worse.
Take a more favorable environment for carriers then toss in sharply higher diesel prices due to the Middle East conflict, and the industry forecaster warns shippers they could soon see their most unfavorable conditions ever.
That is, if higher fuel prices drive out capacity and raise freight rates and don’t just amount to a spike in fuel surcharges.
“We wanted to highlight the possibility that the SCI soon could indicate the toughest overall conditions ever for shippers, though the freight components of the index are not yet as tough as they were in early 2022,” Vise said. “However, the freight market then had started to cool from 2021’s extreme situation while today’s freight market – especially in trucking – is tightening. If the dramatic rise in diesel prices were to sideline even more capacity, the SCI quite plausibly could become even more unfavorable than it was in early 2022.”
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