With 2025 order books now open, fleets are ordering Class 8 trucks at a “healthy” but cautious level, industry forecasters report. Inventory levels remain high, meaning OEMs will be pressured to trim production rates.
The spot market improved in the most recent week, in line with seasonal expectations. But the flatbed segment saw declines that weighed on the overall rate gains seen last week.
Class 8 orders healthy, but fleets cautious
Preliminary Class 8 orders in October were below seasonal expectation sat 28,300 units, FTR reported. That marked saw a 14% decline from September but was up 2% year over year.
FTR characterized the order activity as being “healthy” while adding that fleets are exercising caution when committing to new orders.
“This month, OEMs saw a drop month over month in total market demand, but there was inconsistency, as some experienced increases in orders and others saw declines. The on-highway market showcased a notable jump in demand, softening the blow from the declines observed in the overall vocational sector,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst of commercial vehicles with FTR.
“Despite a sluggish freight market, fleets have sustained their investments in new equipment, albeit primarily at replacement demand levels thus far in 2024. We anticipate a slight uptick in October backlogs once the final Class 8 market data is released later this month. With inventory levels remaining close to record highs, we also foresee continued downward pressure on production rates through the remainder of 2024.”
ACT Research reported Class 8 orders of 30,600 units, down 5.2% year over year.
“After a strong start to the opening of 2025 order books in September, medium-duty and heavy-duty orders took a step back in October,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst.
Regarding medium-duty, he added, “Over the past several years, medium-duty Classes 5-7 orders have been remarkably consistent, if on a slowly deflating trajectory into still-elevated truck and bus backlogs. With the caveat that one month does not make a trend, October orders moved sharply from the prevailing trend. Preliminary North American Classes 5-7 orders fell 5,800 units, or 27% year over year, to 15,900 units.”
Van spot market rates rise as expected
The spot market moved up in line with seasonal expectations the week ended Nov. 1, according to Truckstop and FTR Transportation Intelligence.
Rates for dry vans resumed an upward trend while reefer rates also rose as they typically do this week of the year. The overall market rates were held back by a decline in flatbed rates. But dry van and reefer rates were up year over year for the fourth consecutive week.
“Spot rates during the current week (week ended Nov. 8) typically move much like they did last week as refrigerated rates always rise and flatbed rates always fall,” the companies said. “The move-in dry van spot rates are not as consistent as the other equipment types for this week of the year.”
With truck postings decreasing more sharply than load postings, the Market Demand Index increased to 68.1, which is still lower than it was two weeks earlier.
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