Class 8 order season has officially begun, with orders stumbling out of the gate. The latest 25% tariffs announced for complete heavy trucks only adds to fleet uncertainties and their reticence to order new iron.
The spot market remains weak but is entering a traditional period of stability. And even shippers are having a tough go in this market, with their overall conditions remaining in negative territory according to the latest Shippers Conditions Index.
Class 8 orders concerning
As truck manufacturers opened their 2026 order boards, preliminary orders underwhelmed in September at 20,500 units, according to FTR. While that’s up 60% from August levels, it’s down 41% year over year, marking the ninth straight month of YoY declines.
Orders were also well off the 10-year September average of 29,499 units. The softness reflects trade tensions, tariff uncertainty and broader economic headwinds that are weighing on freight demand, FTR reported.
“On Sept. 25, President Trump announced on social media a 25% Section 232 tariff on imported heavy-duty trucks, effective Oct. 1. However, no official details have been released from the U.S. government yet,” noted Dan Moyer, FTR’s senior analyst, commercial vehicles.
“It remains unclear when the tariff might be implemented and whether the tariff also covers medium-duty trucks, parts, or USMCA-compliant imports. The news has already rattled fleets, OEMs, and suppliers coping with weak demand, rising costs, and fragile supply chains. The tariff adds to an already difficult trade environment. Steel, aluminum, and copper duties remain at 50%, raising component costs, and reciprocal tariffs for major trading partners further complicate sourcing.”
All this will contribute to higher truck prices, Moyer added, assuming the tariffs are applied as planned.
“Imported Class 8 trucks will face a 25% surcharge, and U.S.-built models may see added costs from imported parts. Some fleets are likely to delay or cancel orders, boosting demand for used trucks as operators extend vehicle life-cycles,” Moyer said. “Reshoring may accelerate, but U.S. factories are hampered by labor constraints, high costs, and infrastructure limits. In the near term, the market faces higher prices, supply chain disruptions, and ongoing uncertainty.”
ACT Research reported preliminary orders of 20,800 Class 8 trucks.
“The longest for-hire downturn in history continues to weigh on tractor demand as freight rates continue to run below inflation levels,” said Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research.
“And even as more tariffs are imposed, the nation awaits a verdict on IEEPA tariffs in a case the Supreme Court will hear in early November. On top of tariffs, the industry awaits the announcement from the EPA on the future of low-NOx regulation. Quite the Q3 for the industry, and a challenging start to the opening of 2026 order boards.”
Freight volumes decreased in August
Meanwhile, in its August For-Hire Trucking Index, ACT Research reported decreases in freight volumes and capacity.
“Consumer spending trends remain strong, but consumers have so far been insulated from price increases, as most tariff costs have yet to be passed on,” Vieth noted. “Real income growth has slowed and could decline as inflation picks up. The freight downturn, now in its fourth year, is unlikely to pick up while the trade war worsens. However, the private fleet expansion that we see as a key reason behind the long downturn is starting to reverse.”
Vieth added publicly traded for-hire carriers are reporting their worst profit margins since 2010.
“Tariffs have added cost and uncertainty, spurring demand for pre-tariff tractors in Q2, further delaying a for-hire recovery,” he said. “Renewing bonus depreciation may help at the margin, but not with margins where they are, and major ongoing uncertainty about tariffs and emissions regulations seem to outweigh incentives to invest.”
ACT’s Supply-Demand Balance decreased, but was supported by capacity reductions.
“The supply-demand balance is unlikely to improve meaningfully in the short term, as we’re likely near the payback period following the demand surge ahead of tariffs,” Vieth said. “Additionally, goods inflation is expected to pick up as companies, that have largely forestalled tariff costs thus far, begin to pass costs along in earnest. Weaker goods demand will be counteracted somewhat by capacity contractions, but strong demand and tight supply is what’s needed for a new freight cycle to take hold.”
Spot rates also fell in August
DAT Freight & Analytics reported cooler demand in August on the U.S. spot market. Volumes were down for van (-8%), refrigerated (-6%) and flatbed (-6%) compared to July.
“August underscored how shippers pulling forward imports earlier in the year is affecting typical seasonal demand for trucks,” said Ken Adamo, DAT chief of analytics. “Retail goods that usually move in August — back-to-school and holiday products, for example — are already in inventory.”
Rates were also down. Spot van rates were $2.03 (all figures USD), down two cents from July, reefer rates fell a penny to $2.41 and flatbed rates fell six cents to $2.49. Contract rates also declined in August by two cents/mile (van and flatbed) and four cents (reefer).
“Rates are under pressure for truckload carriers bidding on contracts for 2026,” said Adamo. “While shippers are uncertain about future freight volumes, especially industrial, cross-border, and goods that follow import cycles, they’ve managed to hold the line on contract pricing.”
Spot rate stability on horizon?
More recently, spot market rates were flat for the week ended Sept. 26, according to data from Truckstop.com and FTR. Typically, late September and early October are a period of stable rates on the spot market, Truckstop.com reports.
“Dry van spot rates increased for the first time in four weeks, while refrigerated spot rates continued their four-week decline, though at a slower pace. Flatbed spot rates edged up slightly for only the second time in 12 weeks,” Truckstop.com said in an update.
“Load postings rose only slightly but remain strong year over year, mainly due to flatbed volumes and, to a lesser extent, weak comparisons for dry van in 2024. With truck postings slightly exceeding load postings, the Market Demand Index dipped slightly to 95.6, remaining the highest level since mid-May, except for the week ending Sept. 19.”
Tough times for shippers, too
Shippers’ conditions remained negative in July, according to FTR’S Shippers Conditions Index, which improved to -2.0 from -3.6 in July.
The improvement was due to more favorable freight dynamics for shippers with rates at their most favorable levels since lats October. FTR projects the index to remain close to neutral through the rest of the year and most of next year.
“As of today, we forecast very mildly unfavorable market conditions for shippers over the next couple of years, but trucking capacity is poised to tighten significantly,” said Avery Vise, FTR’s vice-president, trucking.
“A preliminary revision of payroll jobs data in trucking already implies a tighter supply of drivers than previously indicated, but the big development is the just-announced crackdown on foreign nationals holding commercial driver’s licenses along with the ongoing scrutiny over English language skills. Record insurance premium costs add to the pressure. Also, the new 25% tariff on heavy trucks could further reduce trucking companies’ ability to grow whenever freight demand warrants. A weak freight market might keep these pressures at bay for a while, but shippers could face a much hotter market once volume recovers.”
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