
There were mixed signals within the data that crossed our desks this week. Freight growth slowed in December, according to ACT Research, and spot market rates fell in line with normal seasonal patterns.
However, Motive’s quarterly economic report projects a strong freight market in 2025, and even a potential “boom cycle.”
Freight growth slowed in December: ACT
ACT Research’s For-Hire Trucking Index showed slowing freight growth in December.
“Despite the economy continuing to exceed expectations, particularly consumer spending, for-hire volumes have yet to find meaningful purchase out of the trough,” summed up Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT.
“While freight is growing broadly, two years of private fleet capacity additions have diminished for-hire carriers’ slice of the freight pie. Additionally, while the retail sector is healthy, interest rate sensitive sectors like manufacturing and construction are sluggish. Tighter financial conditions are likely to slow volumes in these sectors, despite support from hurricanes and wildfires.”
Capacity was flat in December, which Vieth attributed to nearly three years of weak profitability curtailing any fleet desires to add trucks.
The supply-demand balance grew at a slower rate in December, as slower growth in freight volumes outweighed a slight contraction in capacity.
“Private fleet expansion, which is not captured in this indicator, has resulted in a longer period with the market close to balance than in past cycles,” Vieth said. “Consumers remain robust, and inflation is in relatively good shape for now. But sustained high interest rates could dampen demand in construction and industrials and may limit volume improvement in the near term. A slowdown in private fleet growth is likely and should lead to further improvement in the for-hire market balance.”
Broker optimism increasing
A new survey from Truckstop and Bloomberg Intelligence revealed brokers are increasingly optimistic for rising spot rates and increased demand.
“Most brokers believe demand, rates and margins are poised to keep getting better,” said Lee Klaskow, senior freight transportation and logistics analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “They also anticipate that the new administration could drive load growth, while higher rates and technological advancements may continue to support margin expansion.”
Responding brokers reported stronger freight demand in the second half of 2024 (55%), a 26% improvement over the first half of the year. Seventy-seven per cent of brokers said they expect volumes to be up in the next three to six months, a 28% improvement in optimism compared to the first half of 2024.
More than half of respondents expect spot market rates to rise in the next three to six months, an 18% hike from the first half of 2024.
“Brokers are showing growing optimism for the year ahead, with our latest survey revealing that 52% of brokerages plan to expand their teams and 89% feel better equipped to combat fraud,” said Kendra Tucker, chief executive officer, Truckstop.

Motive predicts 2025 freight boom
In its quarterly economic report, Motive projected a strong freight market in 2025, and a potential boom cycle.
“We anticipate rising freight rates, lower interest rates, and sustained demand for cross-border trade to continue driving the trucking market’s positive momentum throughout Q1,” Motive said in its report.
“In Q4, strong retail performance fueled increased demand for freight services, a trend expected to persist into 2025. Increased demand is likely to spur the formation of new small businesses, further fueling growth in the market and creating more jobs. Freight volumes are projected to rise significantly in the first half of 2025, supported by stabilizing interest rates and increasing trade with Mexico. Additionally, sector-specific growth may benefit from policy changes, particularly in industrial sectors such as oil and gas, creating further opportunities for the trucking sector across consumer and commercial markets.”
Motive reported U.S./Mexico trade was on the rise toward the end of last year, but truck crossings from Canada were down 5% year over year in November.
“Unlike Mexico, where trade by truck has seen significant growth, Canada has not experienced the same momentum as a trading partner,” Motive reported.
It also feels long-term tariff impacts on cross-border activity will be “moderate” and that “much of the current tariff speculation is overblown.”
The rate of carrier exits in the U.S. has slowed, with 19,000 carriers exiting the market in 2024 compared to 40,000 the year before.
Shippers benefit from lower fuel costs

Shippers saw improving conditions in November, thanks largely to lower fuel costs. The FTR Shipper Conditions Index (SCI) ticked up to a reading of 2.3, reflecting a mostly favorable market for shippers.
“The freight market has entered a transitional phase in which shippers should no longer expect consistently favorable conditions as has been the case over the past two years,” explained Avery Vise, FTR’s vice-president of trucking
“During that period, the SCI was negative only twice, and in both cases a spike in diesel prices was the key factor. As we enter 2025, shippers should expect a more balanced market but not one that is especially tough, at least not by the standards of years like 2021 and 2018. We still forecast SCI readings close to neutral over the next couple of years with only a marginally negative bias.”

Van spot rates continue to normalize
The spot market for the week ended Jan. 24 saw a shift back toward normal seasonal patterns, according to the latest data from Truckstop and FTR Transportation Intelligence.
Dry van and reefer rates settled while flatbed rates moved higher, which is typical for that week. Year over year comparisons were tough due to sever winter weather the same week in 2024, which pushed rates sharply upward.
“A sharp drop in load postings due at least in part to a federal holiday, coupled with a slight increase in truck postings, produced a Market Demand Index of 70.5, the lowest level in four weeks,” Truckstop reported.
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