Throughout most of 2024, cross-border freight has been dominated by Mexican imports, particularly computer-related truck freight. However, a new White House administration could significantly alter that steep upward trajectory.
According to the latest numbers from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, truck freight valued at nearly $78 billion was hauled across the borders in December 2024. That was an increase of 6% compared to December 2023 but a decrease of 6% from the previous month.
Year-to-year, the increase in cross-border freight hauled by trucks was largely the result of activity in and out of the southern border. Mexican truck freight jumped by 10%, whereas Canadian freight was up by less than 1%.
The hike in Mexican truck movement was led by a 54% surge in computer-related imports, which was the theme for 2024. In all but two months, computer-related Mexican truck imports increased by double-digits, going as high as 83% in September. In 2023, computer-related imports were down in all but three months.
U.S. companies are shifting nearshoring away from China and to Mexico, leading to significant increases in cross-border freight at the southern border. According to Motive, last year was a record year for Mexican freight. October saw a record-high number of truck crossings at 677,000.
“Laredo, which handles about 40% of imports by road, saw a significant 28.5% year-over-year increase in Christmas imports, reflecting robust freight movement from Mexico, the U.S.’ largest import partner,” Motive Head of Strategic Analytics Hamish Woodrow stated in his Q1 2025 outlook report. “Nearshoring manufacturing capacity in Mexico, fueled by significant foreign investment, is set to further drive positive import growth.”
In its Q1 Market Update and Outlook Report, Uber Freight noted that in January, Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum announced a plan to attract $277 billion in investments between 2025 and 2030 in an effort to make the country a hub for global supply chains. However, Uber Freight cautioned about tariff threats from President Donald Trump.
“A key point to ensure the continuity of this partnership and the economic stability of both countries will be the review of the USMCA, which is officially scheduled for 2026,” Uber Freight stated in its report. “However, the conversations among the three countries are expected to start as soon as the new administration of the U.S. takes office.”
On Feb. 1, Trump announced a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods. Those tariffs were quickly put on a 30-day hold as the three countries negotiate a deal. On Feb. 11, Trump issued a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports.
The top three truck commodities at the northern border were computers/parts ($5 billion, down 11%), vehicles ($4.3 billion, down 6.5%) and electrical machinery ($2.4 billion, up 5%). At the southern border, top commodities included computers/parts ($12 billion, up 42%), electrical machinery ($9.3 billion, up 4%) and vehicles ($5.7 billion, down 4%).
By weight, cross-border freight hauled by trucks was up 5% compared to the previous year but dropped by 6% compared to November 2024. Between July 2022 and September 2023, truck freight by weight was on a downward trajectory. However, 2024 saw growth in seven months.
Top Canadian commodities for trucking by weight included wood (up 8%), paper (up 10%) and mineral fuels (up 6%). Vehicle freight was among the top commodities at the northern border for much of 2024. However, significant decreases over several months pushed it down to fifth place in November and December. In Mexico, the top three commodities were edible vegetables/roots (up 12%), vehicles (down 9%) and computer-related machinery/parts (up 10%).
Accounting for all modes of transportation, the total value of cross-border freight reached $126 billion in December 2024. That was a 4% increase compared to the previous year but a decrease of 4% compared to the previous month. Canadian freight was up 2% compared to the previous year, whereas Mexican freight rose by 6%.
Overall cross-border freight suffered a seven-month losing streak beginning in March 2023. Afterward, North American freight experienced a rebound, with only five months experiencing year-to-year losses in the 15 months between October 2023 and December 2024.
In November 2024, cross-border freight was lower for three transportation modes: vessel (down 8%), rail (down 6%) and pipeline (down 2%). However, larger growth in truck and airfreight (up 10%) led to an overall net increase. LL
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