Many speculate that the trucking industry will see a widespread loss of jobs with the rise of self-driving technology. Some have forecast that autonomous vehicles will eliminate 2-3 million trucking jobs over the next several years. But in looking at the data, researchers believe these projections are overstated for three key reasons: 1) Truck drivers do more than drive trucks. 2) Full automation of truck driving is far into the future. 3) There aren’t as many truck drivers in the U.S. as people think.
Hardly a day goes by without someone suggesting that technologies like AI, machine learning, and robotics will transform the 21st century labor market. A prominent example of this has been in truck driving – an occupation that spans multiples industries and moves over 70% of U.S. freight by weight —which many speculate will see a widespread loss of jobs with the rise of self-driving technology. Some have forecast that autonomous vehicles will eliminate 2-3 million trucking jobs over the next several years. But in looking at the data, we believe that, while the risk of job loss from automation is very real, the projections that often get touted are overstated. In a study in the Industrial and Labor Relations Review, we argue that there are three key reasons why:
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