FTR said its trucking conditions index for May rose to 20.4, the highest reading ever.
The previous record reading of 16.8 was in February 2021. In April, the index came in at 11.6. The TCI measures U.S. freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel prices, and financing costs.
“Robust market conditions have developed recently and rapidly after several years of tough going for most of the trucking industry,” said Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking. “Many carriers have a long way to go to repair their finances and return to consistent and acceptable margins.”
Vise said in a statement that broad-based volume growth remains elusive and that a freight market rebound could soon “hit a ceiling.” He and FTR CEO Jonathan Starks expanded on the group’s updated economic outlook during a July 9 webinar.
Starks said recent data on manufacturing from the Institute of Supply Management and Federal Reserve show that “there is growth occurring. It’s relatively slow growth, but there is growth.”
However, housing starts remain sluggish, and gains in construction activity have come mainly from the building of AI data centers and are not indicative of a larger construction boom.
For trucking, the flatbed sector continues to show the greatest strength. The segment is forecasted to grow between 3.5% and 4% this year.
Vise said flatbed rates have been rising steadily for months, but have begun to level off. FTR estimates 2027 truckload contract rates are forecast to rise by 17%, and spot rates by 35%.
Meanwhile, Class 8 orders are up 36% so far this year from 2025, as carriers replace aging equipment ahead of the new NOx regulation taking effect. More carriers “are choosing to do so now – to avoid higher costs and also because the rate environment is beginning to support that,” Vise said of ordering new trucks.
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