Some market indicators have turned positive – but only due to seasonal fluctuations.
The OOIDA Foundation said in its May freight market update that seasonal increases across the flatbed and reefer market were behind the Total Spot Market Cycle Indicator turning positive for the first time in 32 months.
“Don’t let this chart fool you,” the Foundation said.
An overview of the market showed volume/demand were weakening, capacity was loosening, operating costs were falling and rates were rising.
Van market
Demand was down in four of six regions with the largest decrease in the Northeast region, which was down 20%.
Rates were also down in half of those regions.
Tariffs have been expected to begin negatively impacting sales and inventory ratios in May or June.
“Household appliances wholesalers have been performing well ever since late 2023, but we predict that this will change in the coming months due to tariffs and how this might impact demand overall,” the Foundation said.
Flatbed market
The Southeast and Northeast regions saw more favorable demand ratios compared to other locations.
All six regions reported increased rates.
A decrease in the Flatbed Composite Index was driven by cement and concrete product and oil and gas.
The median price for existing single-family homes increased in March, while the number of sales dropped year-over-year.
Reefer market
Demand was higher throughout the West Coast and Northeast regions.
Rates increased by the largest amount in the Southeast region.
“Volumes are substantially lower than where we were in 2019, which is a bad indicator for freight demand,” the Foundation said. “The market continues to be plagued with persistent overcapacity. Tariffs could further exacerbate the issue by raising prices for farmers.”
When produce season hits, we all feel it. 🍓🌽
Strawberries in California, sweet onions in Georgia – harvests like these bring a surge of freight that reshapes the entire market.
Why does a harvest in one region cause rate spikes across the country?
🧗 Volume climbs
🚚… pic.twitter.com/QeLBu7zjHi— DAT Freight & Analytics (@datfreightteam) June 2, 2025
Trucking market
According to the Cass Shipment Index, the trade war is likely to extend the for-hire freight recession.
“Higher prices reduce goods affordability and consumers’ real incomes,” Cass said. “With the demand outlook choppy, it’s not clear when the transportation industry’s finances will turn up.”
Truck employment increased overall but was down year-over-year.
“Used truck demand is basically a barometer on the spot rate market at the time,” said Trey Golden, vice president of used truck sales at Rush Enterprises. “There have been a lot of freight slowdowns going on now. March was largely unaffected by any kind of tariff-related freight disruptions. If anything, there was more freight as people were trying to front-load ahead of tariffs.”
Some signs are indicating 2025 could have similar dynamics to 2019, when business-to-business and long-haul sectors struggled, the Logistics Managers’ Index said.
While tariffs will definitely hurt freight demand, and thereby rates, they should bring diesel prices down as well.
The full Foundation market update is available online. LL
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