The fuel and oil markets have been among the few to show any positive signs within recent industry analysis.
In its latest update, the OOIDA Foundation maintained a negative outlook on the freight market as an upcycle appears further away.
“Part of the problem is the costs of operating,” Andrew King, director of the Foundation, said. “It’s not only rates; you have increased costs. Those two things together create a very painful situation. There are so many things underneath the surface that aren’t firing to really flip the market.”
Act Research said that freight volumes remain soft and tariff-driven cost pressures continue to weigh on margins.
Fortunately, fuel is one cost that has yet to be significantly impacted by active or impending tariffs.
The Energy Information Administration’s short-term energy outlook, released on Wednesday, Nov. 12, said prices for fuel and oil are expected to fall through the end of the year and into 2026.
Fuel prices are updated daily on this Land Line resources page.
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
| Brent crude oil (dollars per barrel) |
82 | 81 | 69 | 55 |
| U.S. crude oil production (million barrels per day) |
12.9 | 13.2 | 13.6 | 13.6 |
| Natural gas spot price (dollars per million BTU) |
2.50 | 2.20 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| U.S. LNG exports (billion cubic feet per day) |
12 | 12 | 15 | 16 |
EIA has increased its forecast for U.S. oil production to 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2026.
Brent crude oil is expected to drop to $54 per barrel in the first quarter of next year and average $55 per barrel for the entirety of 2026.
Diesel is forecast to average $3.50 per gallon nationally for 2026. This is a 7% decline from the national fuel average in 2024, according to EIA.
“The expected decrease in prices is the result of global inventories rising through 2026 as global oil production grows faster than the demand for petroleum fuels,” EIA said. “As the price of oil comes down, so will its share of fuel prices.”
Find the complete EIA short-term energy outlook online. LL
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