The mood in trucking is improving, ever so slowly, based on the latest reports to cross our desks. ACT Research characterizes it as ‘cautious optimism’ as clarity around EPA27 emissions and continued economic growth is restoring some confidence to truck buyers.
It was a December to remember for the U.S. spot market, followed by a sharp decline in rates in early January…but that’s a seasonal norm. Rates in early January remained above year-ago levels.
Let’s dive in…
‘Cautious optimism’ to start 2026
ACT Research says the year has begun with an underlying sentiment of “cautious optimism.”
In its North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook report, the analyst cited a continuing strong U.S. economy and strengthening spot market rates as sources of that optimism.
“Firstly, the economy, aided by AI tailwinds, continues to outperform expectations, with GDP rising 4.3% in Q3. Crucially for the trucking industry, consumer spending remains robust, accounting for more than half of Q3 GDP growth,” said Ken Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst. “Though concerns about the balance of growth persist, as wealthy households are behind most of the spending.”
He added, “Secondly, spot rates surged through November and December, helped by resilient consumer spending, severe weather, and a quickening of capacity contractions. Though much of the gains are likely to reverse if January weather continues to warm.”
ACT also said clarity on EPA27 emissions rules has prompted some fleets to begin ordering new Class 8 trucks.
Shipper conditions deteriorate
The news is less positive for shippers. FTR posted its November Shippers Conditions Index, which fell into negative territory with a reading of -2.9, down from 0.3 in October. Shippers can blame higher rates, tighter capacity, and a brief blip in fuel costs.
However, FTR says diesel prices have since fallen, which will soften the impact for shippers.
“We have been forecasting a freight market shift in 2026 that would be mildly unfavorable for shippers, and trends and data over just the last month offer greater confidence in that outlook,” reasoned Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking.
“Van spot rates in trucking were notably stronger than seasonal expectations in December. Even if that strength proves temporary, it indicates a tighter overall capacity. Preliminary employment data also points to lower capacity in trucking than current figures indicate. One positive situation for shippers is that diesel prices are near four-year lows, but most other key factors suggest a tougher market in the coming months.”
A December to remember on the spot market
A new report from DAT Freight & Analytics confirms U.S. spot market rates surged in December, despite little growth in volumes.
The DAT Truckload Volume Index, which measures demand for truckload services, rose 4% from November for van carriers, 7% for reefers and fell 1% for flatdeckers.
Rates, however, were sharply higher. Van rates jumped 20 cents/mile to $2.99 from November, reefer rates jumped 15 cents to $2.69 and flatbed rates rose 6 cents to $2.53. Van and reefer rates saw their highest monthly average levels of the year.
“Peak season spot rates showed up in December,” said Ken Adamo, DAT chief of analytics. “A combination of seasonality, weather, the quirks of the holiday calendar, and constrained capacity drove prices substantially higher, as opposed to stronger freight volumes.”
Contract rates were mostly flat, however. The gap between spot and contract rates narrowed to its smallest since March 2022, DAT reported, a move that could prompt shippers to try to lock in capacity.
“Tariffs, regulatory chatter, and changes on the technology side made 2025 a very busy year operationally, yet pricing and volumes barely moved,” Adamo said. “Heading into Q1 2026, normal financial pressures will trim capacity and pinch freight broker margins, and if tariffs are overturned, we could see a chaotic couple of quarters as imports surge. But the longer this flat market continues, the more we’ll need something big and sustained to invert it.”
Back to reality in latest week
Spot market rates reported by truckstop.com and FTR for the first week in January, however, fell as expected. But FTR predicts rates will remain higher over the next few weeks than during the same period in 2025.
Flatbed rates were the outlier in the most recent week, rising slightly and hitting their highest level since July.
Despite the sharp decline to start the year, dry van and reefer rates were still above year-ago levels.
“Barring extreme winter weather disruptions, spot rates for van equipment are expected to continue moderating over the next few weeks, though they might stay higher than those in similar periods in 2025,” the companies said in an update.
“The increase in spot load postings after the New Year’s Day holiday significantly exceeded the recovery in truck postings, leading to a Market Demand Index of 128.8 – the highest level since the week of the International Roadcheck roadside inspection event in May 2022.”
In other economic news this week:
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