Truck OEMs are about to open their 2026 order books, but industry analysts don’t expect fleets to rush to place orders.
There remains too much economic and tariff-related uncertainty and they’re more focused on maximizing utilization of their current assets, according to FTR.
The spot market strengthened in line with seasonal expectations in the most recent week, Truckstop.com reported.
Class 8 orders rise, but still down YoY
Preliminary data from FTR showed August Class 8 orders totaled 13,000 units, up 4% from August but down 14% year over year. That’s eight straight months of annual declines, and well off the 10-year average for the month of 23,135 units.
Both vocational and highway units rose from July levels. FTR points out OEM order boards for 2026 open this month, but fleet order activity is expected to remain muted.
“The N.A. Class 8 truck and tractor market faces growing pressure from tariffs, near-record inventory, regulatory uncertainty, and weak freight demand. Tariff increases imposed on Aug. 7 raised costs on vehicles, parts, and key inputs,” explained Dan Moyer, FTR’s senior analyst, commercial vehicles.
“A recent federal appeals court ruling casts doubt about the legality of country-specific ‘reciprocal’ tariffs, although those tariffs remain in place until at least Oct. 14, pending U.S. Supreme Court review. By contrast, Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper are unaffected by that court ruling and may soon expand to trucks, components, and semiconductors, adding further risk.”
Moyer also suggested uncertainty over EPA27 emissions standards are also causing fleets to delay orders.
“Fleets are extending truck lifespans and incurring higher maintenance costs. Suppliers are squeezed by input inflation and uneven demand. Dealers are leaning on used equipment and service. And OEMs face profitability pressure, volatile schedules, and greater supply chain exposure. Until tariff and regulatory paths are clarified, the outlook will remain unsettled,” Moyer concluded.
ACT Research reported 13,200 Class 8 orders for the month.
“A beleaguered for-hire market continues to weigh on Class 8 orders. With elevated uncertainty, particularly around equipment costs, and soft activity in housing and broad freight demand outside of pre-tariff activity, this environment may persist,” said Tim Denoyer, vice-president and senior analyst at ACT Research.
“Fleet margin pressure has not abated, with contract rates hardly budging and cost pressures ongoing. Vocational demand has taken its knocks as well this year on a combination of regulatory uncertainty, tariffs, and elevated interest rates, though data centers remain an area of strong activity.”
Spot market van rates spike
Data from Truckstop.com and FTR Transportation Intelligence for the week ended Aug. 29 showed increases in broker-posted spot rates for van equipment. The strong gains were expected ahead of Labor Day and were the highest in seven weeks, Truckstop.com reported.
Refrigerated van spot rates were the highest since the beginning of the year, except for a mid-year peak.
“Van rates are expected to ease in the weeks ahead before starting to firm in October as the fall and winter holidays approach,” Truckstop.com reported.
“Flatbed spot rates are less affected by Labor Day and softened as they typically do during the summer. A slight increase in volume, coupled with a small decrease in truck postings, resulted in a Market Demand Index of 82.7 — the strongest in seven weeks.”
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