Cross-border trucking rebounded in October, but overall North American freight continued its downward spiral as the Supreme Court is set to rule on the legality of the tariffs imposed last year.
The latest numbers from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics show that cross-border trucking increased by nearly 6% year over year. Since April, when President Donald Trump implemented global tariffs, truck freight crossing borders decreased in five of the seven months through October.
Losses in cross-border trucking were driven by a significant drop in activity at the northern border. From January through October, Canadian trucking freight increased year over year just three times. Meanwhile, Mexican trucking freight increased every month except April and August.
Mexico’s cross-border trucking growth has been largely the result of a surge in computer freight. Computer-related imports have seen double-digit year-over-year increases every month since April 2024.
When measured by value, cross-border trucking has been up and down. However, the story is more consistent when measured by weight. North American trucking freight by weight has been down every month since April.
Much of the uncertainty of cross-border trucking could be mitigated or exacerbated soon.
The Supreme Court is set to rule on the legality of President Donald Trump’s global tariffs as early as Jan. 14. There are mixed feelings about what a Supreme Court reversal could do. In a social media post, Trump suggested “WE’RE SCREWED!” if the tariffs are voided. Meanwhile, Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, said it would boost growth, which has been stagnant since the tariffs began.
After cogitating a bit on the December jobs data, I’m increasingly convinced that the job market is struggling, and the broader economy is fragile, in big part due to U.S. tariffs. There has been no job growth (and likely job declines after all the revisions are in), as measured… pic.twitter.com/x2K17WdUre
— Mark Zandi (@Markzandi) January 11, 2026
Since last April, more than a dozen countries have reached a trade deal with the U.S., including China, the European Union, Indonesia, Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. On Jan. 12, The New York Times reported that a deal with Taiwan is in the works.
While cross-border trucking has been inconsistent throughout most of 2025, North American freight has been consistently down across all modes. In October, freight was down just 0.3%. However, cross-border freight has been down every month since April, as high as 8.5% in April and as low as 1% in July.
October’s downfall was led by a slowdown at the northern border. Canadian freight dropped 6%, led by a 70% decrease in special classification provisions, a top 10 commodity. Meanwhile, Mexican freight was up 5%, due in large part to the surge in computer-related trucking freight. LL
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