For much of the past three years, mergers and acquisitions in the trucking industry were largely put on hold.
The prolonged freight recession depressed valuations, carriers struggled with weak freight demand and excess capacity, and many owners who had planned to retire instead opted to wait for better market conditions.
Now, that appears to be changing.
Peter Stefanovich, president of Left Lane Associates, says interest from both buyers and sellers has picked up noticeably in recent months as freight fundamentals improve and confidence begins returning to the market. While uncertainty surrounding trade policy remains, he believes the industry has entered a new phase that could culminate in a strong seller’s market by 2027.
“After Easter, we started to see people really respond back where it’s been relatively flat for the last year,” Stefanovich said. “We’re starting to see people step back in the ring that were really cautious about doing M&A over the last nine to 12 months.”
Stefanovich attributes the renewed activity to several converging factors. The freight recession has largely run its course, rates have been improving since the beginning of the year, and significant trucking capacity has exited the market through bankruptcies, closures and stricter enforcement against non-compliant carriers.
“We started to see a compression in the volume of carriers that are out there,” he said. “As businesses start to do better, you start to see people having more conversations about M&A.”
That outlook is echoed in Tenney Group’s 2026 Mid-Year M&A Report, which says the conditions for a significant increase in transportation and logistics transactions are finally taking shape. The report cites reduced industry capacity, improving freight rates, aging business owners, available investment capital and technological change as major catalysts, while predicting record-breaking M&A activity could emerge in 2027.
Three years of pent-up demand
The freight downturn that began in mid-2022 delayed succession plans for many trucking company owners.
“You don’t want to sell when the market’s down,” Stefanovich said. “It’s great for a buyer, but [not] for a seller that’s looking at exiting. People have been holding back.”
Many of those owners are now approaching retirement age, creating what Stefanovich sees as significant pent-up demand.
“The thing you can’t change is people’s age and time,” he said. “A lot of people wanted to sell two years ago or three years ago or last year that have been waiting. It’s less about a want and it becomes more of a need.”
Technology is also influencing succession decisions. Stefanovich said some longtime operators who built their businesses after deregulation are looking at the increasing role of artificial intelligence and automation and deciding they would rather sell than invest in another major transformation.
Buyers never stopped looking
While sellers may have delayed their exits, buyers have continued evaluating opportunities throughout the cycle. Mark Seymour, CEO of Kriska Transportation Group and chairman of the Truckload Carriers Association, said acquisition strategies aren’t driven solely by freight conditions.
“Buyers are buyers,” Seymour said. “We’re always looking at ways to make our business better.”
Rather than chasing bargains, Kriska looks for acquisitions that strengthen its existing network, expand service offerings or create operational efficiencies.
“If there’s opportunities out there that present themselves, that make your business better…it could be complementary to your network. It could be complementary to your geography, where you could take costs out of somebody else’s system by integrating their business into yours,” Seymour told trucknews.com.
Conversely, even a successful company may not make sense if it doesn’t fit strategically.
“A really good business in Whitehorse wouldn’t do me any good because I can’t augment it in any way to make it better or complementary to what we do,” he noted.
That philosophy guided Kriska’s acquisition of Sharp Transportation earlier this year in what was the most recent sizeable acquisition announced in the Canadian trucking space.
Seymour said the transaction wasn’t opportunistic — it was highly intentional.
Sharp operated from a leased facility with an expiring lease, while Kriska already had available space nearby. Integrating the businesses eliminates duplicate occupancy costs while adding complementary operations.
Just as importantly, Sharp brings expertise in pharmaceutical transportation; an area Kriska had wanted to enter but recognized would be difficult to build organically.
“We kind of bought our way into it,” Seymour said. “It gives us a pre-existing set of relationships that exist with customers. If we can grow those relationships by adding more capacity, we see that as being good for us.”
Quality commands a premium
If buyers are returning, they’re also becoming more selective. Stefanovich says today’s acquirers aren’t looking for distressed companies requiring major turnarounds. Instead, they’re looking for businesses that can stand on their own while being integrated.
“They don’t want to buy fixer-uppers,” he said.
Management depth has become increasingly important. Buyers want to know a business can continue operating successfully after the owner steps away, making strong second-tier leadership a significant value driver.
Stefanovich also encourages owners considering an eventual sale to begin preparing now by producing monthly financial statements, reducing customer concentration, strengthening management teams and developing succession and tax plans.
The riches are in the niches
“The more you download that to somebody else — whether it’s a general manager, VP or COO — the quicker you’re going to be able to exit, but also the more somebody’s going to pay.”
Specialization also remains highly attractive.
“The riches are in the niches,” Stefanovich said.
Companies operating in specialized, higher-margin markets continue commanding stronger valuations than carriers competing in commoditized freight segments where margins remain under constant pressure.
That trend is consistent with Tenney Group’s assessment that transportation M&A has continued to favor highly specialized transactions, although larger institutional investors are beginning to pursue more transformational acquisitions as confidence returns.
Diversification remains a priority
Another common theme is diversification. Stefanovich points to companies such as Challenger Motor Freight and Canada Cartage, which have steadily expanded beyond traditional truckload transportation into services such as customs brokerage, freight forwarding, dedicated transportation and final-mile delivery.
Rather than relying on a single freight segment, many carriers are seeking broader service offerings that create additional revenue streams while allowing customers to consolidate transportation services under one provider.
“You don’t want to be in the commoditized freight space where it’s a race to the bottom,” Stefanovich said.
Trade uncertainty clouds the outlook
One complication has emerged since Stefanovich was interviewed. His comments were made before the U.S. administration announced it does not intend to renew CUSMA “in its current form,” introducing another layer of uncertainty for cross-border carriers.
Seymour believes that uncertainty warrants caution but is unlikely to derail acquisition activity altogether.
“If it’s very specific to the types of merchandise or commodities that are likely to be most affected by the absence of a USMCA deal, then it’s going to bring caution and a conservative approach,” he said.
“But there’s no clarity as to what’s going to happen. There’s been so much uncertainty and pivot going on in the last couple of years, since this administration took over, that I don’t think anybody has any level of confidence as to what the end result’s going to be.”
His conclusion reflects the broader mood in the industry.
“I don’t think it’s going to stop buyers from being buyers or sellers from being sellers,” Seymour said. “But it might make the process a little more complicated or stressful.”
For Stefanovich, the larger fundamentals remain intact.
After several years dominated by survival, many trucking companies are once again thinking about growth, succession and strategic expansion. Buyers remain disciplined, but they’re actively searching for businesses that strengthen their networks, add specialized capabilities or improve profitability.
For owners who postponed retirement through the freight recession, the window they were waiting for may finally be beginning to open.
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