Trouble in the Middle East usually rattles oil markets. This time, however, lower demand for oil worldwide could keep fuel prices from climbing as high as many expect.
That’s the latest update from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Higher fuel prices, reduced fuel availability and government initiatives are limiting oil consumption this year, particularly in Asia, EIA said.
These factors have led to 1 million fewer barrels of oil being consumed globally per day than the previous year.
Oil inventories in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) are at their lowest since 2003.
Brent crude oil is forecast to average $105 per barrel in June and July as oil shipments remain limited and inventories fall. EIA expects a $79 per barrel average in 2027 when supply flows and production resume.
“Any scenario involving full restoration of inventories, production and trade flows to pre-conflict levels must account for the partial restructuring of the global oil market that has already occurred,” EIA Administrator Tristan Abbey said.
U.S. crude oil and petroleum product net exports reached a record 5.8 million barrels per day in April. The increase has been most pronounced in diesel and jet fuel, EIA said.
EIA forecasts the national average diesel price to be $5.16 per gallon in the third quarter, before falling to $4.79 per gallon by the end of the year.
Diesel prices are expected to continue to decline in 2027, averaging $4.22 by the end of next year, according to the June EIA outlook.
The OOIDA Foundation recently released guidelines on fuel efficiency in its “Keeping More Money in Every Mile” educational video.
Fuel needs to be thought of in terms beyond price per gallon or miles per gallon.
“Efficiency isn’t just about miles per gallon,” the Foundation said. “It’s about controlling every factor that affects what you pay to move the truck.”
Fuel cards, taxes, tire pressure, invisible costs and idle time are critical factors covered in the video, advising drivers not just to move freight, but to move it profitably.
Read the full short-term outlook on the EIA website. LL
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