A combination of United States policies and uncertainty about the future of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) has slowed down cross-border trucking, but that can all change in July.
Cross-border freight was volatile last year as tariffs created significant uncertainty in markets. That was compounded by U.S. policies that directly affected truck drivers coming from either border, including a crackdown on non-domiciled CDLs and resurrecting out-of-service requirements for English proficiency violations.
According to Zeid Houssami, senior vice president at Uber Freight overseeing cross-border business, about 56,000 Mexican truck drivers have been “artificially removed from the market.” In other words, those drivers are still there, but not compliant. Most of those drivers hold an H-B1 visa.
Houssami told Land Line that the tender acceptance rate for Mexican freight has dropped to 86%. The market standard rate is around 98%. That has shifted shippers to the spot market, increasing spot rates.
Despite these challenges, Mexican trucking freight has been strong. While trucking freight crossing the northern border has been on a downward spiral the past year, overall North American trucking freight ended 2025 on a high note thanks to increases in Mexican freight.
So far this year, cross-border freight appears to be slowing down. According to the latest government data, trucking freight crossing the borders remained mostly stagnant in February with a 0.7% year-to-year increase.
Government data aligns with Uber Freight’s first-quarter market update report, which found exports in key sectors in Mexico softened or declined.
As has been the case over the previous 12 months, a double-digit percentage drop in Canadian trucking freight was offset by strong numbers at the southern border. Also consistent the past year has been a surge in computer-related freight coming out of Mexico.
For the most part, cross-border trucking freight has remained mostly immune to tariffs. Although trucking freight took a hit in the first several months after tariffs were announced, it eventually rebounded while other transportation modes did not.
In February, the Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s tariffs that were based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, prompting his administration to move to Section 122 tariffs. But Houssami pointed out that about 60% of products moving out of Mexico qualify for USMCA exemptions.
Mexico’s strong cross-border freight is being driven by billions of dollars in nearshoring investments. Those investments have been paused as businesses wait to see what happens with the USMCA review.
In July, trade representatives from Canada, Mexico and the United States will evaluate what is and is not working with USMCA and whether changes are needed. If all three countries reach an agreement, USMCA is extended for another 16 years. If just one country says no, the trade agreement will undergo annual reviews until a deal is reached or the agreement expires.
Investors and manufacturers will be watching the USMCA review closely. If a deal is made, having a 16-year agreement on the books will provide the certainty all shippers want to see. Consequently, nearshoring in Mexico will likely pick up and increase cross-border trucking freight. LL
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