Cross-border trucking ended on a high note in 2025, but a landmark Supreme Court order addressing tariffs could complicate freight coming in and out of the borders in 2026.
The latest numbers from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics show that cross-border trucking freight increased by 5% in December. That was preceded by two consecutive months of year-over-year increases after North American freight began to slide in April, largely due to new tariffs.
December’s increase in cross-border trucking followed a consistent pattern throughout the year. First, the net gain was mostly due to a large increase at the southern border, which offset a decrease at the northern border. Mexican freight was up 14%, while Canadian freight was down 7%.
Second, trucking freight out of Mexico was driven by a surge in computer-related machinery and parts. That commodity remained hot since April 2024, with imports increasing as high as 83% in a single month.
Cross-border freight was mostly volatile in 2025, as President Donald Trump imposed a wide range of tariffs. Last February, Trump announced a 25% tariff on Canada, China and Mexico related to the flow of fentanyl at the borders. In April, a reciprocal tariff was imposed on nearly every country.
Businesses adjusted accordingly. There were increases in cross-border trucking freight in the months leading to the tariffs’ effective date as businesses frontloaded imports. From April through September, cross-border trucking suffered year-to-year losses in all but one month.
The buzzword for freight in 2025 was “uncertainty.” With tariffs announced, then delayed and revived, businesses struggled to navigate Trump’s economic policy. Numbers show some stabilization in October.
A return to any level of normalcy may have been compromised on Feb. 20. The Supreme Court ruled that a large portion of Trump’s tariffs is unlawful.
That prompted Trump to impose a 10% tariff on all countries using a different statute. He said he will increase that to 15% the next day.
Just as businesses were getting used to the tariffs, the Supreme Court’s decision may have resurrected the uncertainty that had plagued the economy earlier last year. Trump said that in the coming months, he “will determine and issue the new and legally permissible tariffs.” He also threatened other countries with higher tariffs if they “play games” with the court decision.
About 19 trade deals have been inked with several countries, including seven agreements and 12 frameworks. It is unlikely that any of those deals had a contingency plan for tariffs being reversed.
Port of Long Beach CEO Dr. Noel Hacegaba said “an orderly approach to tariffs helps businesses plan, and ports like Long Beach maximize their contribution to the U.S. economy.”
“The only certainty is uncertainty,” Dr. Hacegaba said. “Freight can’t wait—and certainty helps keep it moving.”
The 10% across-the-board tariff went into effect on Feb. 24. No official proclamation or executive order to increase that to 15% has been issued as of Feb. 24. That could potentially compel businesses to frontload imports again before paying an additional 5%.
Trump also has several other ways to revive the tariffs that the Supreme Court shut down. Some of those statutes require review or investigation, which could give businesses a head start on ordering imports before facing higher fees. LL
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