After three years of rate misery, the freight market is showing signs it may finally be stabilizing. But if you’re waiting for a clean, confident trucking-rate recovery year in 2026, you may want to keep your champagne on ice…for now.
Two new reports on the market point in the same direction: truckload pricing is no longer falling off a cliff, but demand is still too soft to spark a meaningful rebound. And in LTL and parcel, the analysts indicate carriers with scale and market share are still calling the shots.
U.S. Bank’s inaugural Freight Payment Index – Rates Edition (produced with DAT Freight & Analytics) and the Q1 TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index both describe a market that feels like it’s standing still, awaiting a catalyst to accelerate a turnaround.
Truckload: Steady enough to breathe, not strong enough to celebrate
The U.S. Bank/DAT data describes the truckload market’s current status as having brief pulses of life, quickly followed by another reality check.
Spot dry van rates ended September at $1.62 per mile, rose 3% in October, then dipped again by late November. Contract rates, meanwhile, held at $1.99 in September and finished November at $2.02. Year over year, both were up less than 1% — the kind of change you chalk up to seasonality, not a market turning the corner.
The report notes that October brought a key shift: the gap between contract and spot pricing narrowed, creating a brief window for shippers to renegotiate lanes or run mini-bids while pricing converged.
The TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index echoes the same sentiment. It sees tentative signs of truckload improvement on the supply side — carrier exits, consolidation, and tighter enforcement around driver requirements all pushing capacity lower — but says the demand engine is still idling.
Capacity is thinning, but freight volumes aren’t surging. It’s a market trying to stabilize from the bottom, not sprint into a boom.
Large fleets better positioned
Both reports indicated that in a prolonged soft-demand environment, the carriers best positioned to survive — and eventually win — are the ones with scale.
Truckload has been a grinder’s market, rewarding fleets that can tolerate lower margins, carry fixed costs longer, and still keep service consistent enough to hang onto core freight when shippers inevitably start “optimizing” their routing guides.
The TD Cowen/AFS analysis goes a step further, arguing the current environment actively favors large carriers. The smaller operators that were supposed to “hang on just a little longer” for the rebound have already been hanging on for years. Many won’t be around when the market finally turns, the report suggests.
And while truckload is stuck in this slow-motion reset, other modes are showing what pricing power looks like when you actually have it.
LTL sees record-high pricing, even without a demand surge
LTL seemingly lives in its own universe; one where soft demand doesn’t automatically translate into softer pricing.
The TD Cowen/AFS data points to record-high LTL rates in Q4, driven by carrier pricing discipline and the ability to flex market share. The report suggests carriers have leaned into network efficiency and revenue management to protect margins, instead of chasing volume.
Fuel and policy remain the wild cards
Diesel, weather, and policy remain the wild cards that can drastically push rates upward.
U.S. Bank notes fuel surcharges stayed steady through Q3, dipped slightly in October, then jumped 7.5% in November due to refinery outages, even as national diesel prices fell.
The report also flags shrinking carrier capacity as more carriers exit the market than enter, driven by regulation and rising operating costs. The supply reduction hasn’t triggered a major rate spike yet, but it sets the stage for rapid increases if demand rebounds.
And then there’s the policy layer — tariffs and tighter rules around driver eligibility and language requirements — which can squeeze capacity in specific corridors and regions.
What 2026 looks like from here
Expect more stability than 2025, but not a clean breakout.
Truckload rates may firm in pockets, especially if capacity keeps draining out and disruptions hit at the wrong time. But without a demand-side spark, this is still a market that can drift sideways for longer than anyone wants to admit, the reports suggest.
The carriers most likely to come out stronger aren’t necessarily the ones with the best sales pitch — they’re the ones with the balance sheets to survive.
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