It’s all about the spot market in this week’s roundup of economic trucking news. And the news is mostly positive for truckers.
Frigid weather pinched capacity and helped to drive up rates. In Canada, the spot market strength seen in the fall eased back to more sustainable and steady levels. But truckers who chose to stay on the road during the week of Christmas were rewarded with stronger rates south of the border.
Winter weather helps drive up spot rates
Truckers relying on the U.S. spot market can thank frigid winter weather for helping improve rates, according to an analysis from ACT Research.
In its Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume Outlook report, ACT said the cold coincided with a seasonally strong period of the year.
“After three winter storms in the first half of December, TL spot rates are 10% above year-ago levels in late-December, rising about 8% in seasonally adjusted terms over the past month,” said Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s vice president and senior analyst.
“The combination of severe weather and solid holiday freight demand tells us the surge is temporary. Weather will warm and consumption will fall again after the holidays. However, these past few weeks have done more to swing the pendulum of pricing from shippers back toward fleets than anything we’ve seen in a few years. As the capacity contraction accelerates, this swing will continue in 2026.”
The report also examines the potential for a Class 8 truck pre-buy in 2026 as the EPA moves forward with its 2027 NOx emission plans.
“A large pre-buy isn’t likely, since fleets are still managing down excess capacity from overbuying in 2023-2024, and investment dollars are scarce amid generationally low for-hire truckload profit margins,” Denoyer said.
“But Class 8 orders tend to move with spot rates, regardless of the sustainability of the trend, and this dynamic provides a degree of moderation for the 2026 rate outlook.”
Canada’s spot market cools after strong fall run
Load postings on Loadlink dropped 22% in November and were down 20% year over year in November, after two months of strong growth.
The company says November volumes were steadier and more sustainable than the spikes seen in September and October. The softness was spread across cross-border and domestic freight.
Equipment postings were steady and the truck-to-load ratio rose to 3.51 trucks per load posting – a 14% increase from October’s 3.06 and up 10% compared to November 2024.
“November brought a quieter period in the spot market, giving both carriers and brokers an opportunity to reassess and realign,” said James Reyes, general manager at Loadlink Technologies. “With more trucks competing for each load, timely data becomes critical to staying focused on the right lanes and strengthening key relationships.”
Loadlink says carriers and brokers took advantage of the slower month to reassess lane profitability, fine-tune routing strategies and strengthen core customer relations ahead of 2026.
Christmas week spot rate increases in line with past years
As for the most recent spot market data available, truckstop.com and FTR reported rate increases for van equipment for the week ended Dec. 26. However, those increases were no greater than in previous years.
Reefer rates posted their largest gain in two years, with the exception of this year’s International Roadcheck week in May.
Rates for both dry and refrigerated van segments reached their highest levels since January 2023, the companies reported. Flatbed rates declined.
Both truck and load postings were down on the week, which is normal during the Christmas holidays. Truckstop.com’s Market Demand Index, its ratio of loads to trucks, dropped to its lowest point since U.S. Thanksgiving, with truck postings dropping 24.3% as drivers took some well-deserved time off.
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