Date: September 29, 2025 | Author: SJ Munoz | Category: News
It was more of the same as far as the freight market goes. The OOIDA Foundation’s September freight analysis indicated more challenges on the horizon.
The Total Spot Market Cycle Indicator fell further into negative territory. Economic pressure from tariffs is building, and manufacturers believe the most severe effects are still to come.
Even future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve hold little promise with hundreds of products being added to the steel and aluminum tariffs, the Foundation report said.
Van market
The Mountain Central region experienced the largest demand increase, while the South Central region had the biggest drop. Overall, half of the region reported an increase.
All but one region saw a decline in rates.
Miscellaneous manufacturing, miscellaneous durable goods wholesaling and electrical goods wholesaling were largely responsible for the decline in the Dry Van Composite Index.
Flatbed market
Similar to van, the South Central region experienced the most significant decrease in demand across flatbed, and the Mountain Central reported the largest increase.
Rates were down in most regions, the highest decrease in the Mountain Central.
There was an increase in the Flatbed Composite Index. Cement and concrete product, data center construction and structural metals manufacturing were primary drivers of that.
Reefer market
Demand was mixed with three of six regions declining.
Rates were up in more than half of regions. The Midwest saw the largest of those increases.
Grocery and related product wholesaling and beverage and tobacco product manufacturing drove increases.
Trucking market
Capacity numbers decreased significantly in August, as expected. The Foundation said this trend is likely to continue, as trucking employment generally lags behind other indicators, such as demand and rates.
“The freight market was nearing balance in late 2024 and early 2025, with rates and volume trends improving,” the Cass Shipment Index said. “Since the start of the trade war, momentum has slowed sharply. Ongoing volume softness has kept conditions from tightening, and most of the adverse effects of tariffs are still to come.”
The Logistics Managers’ Index said the fact capacity is expanding faster than prices is significant. This indicates a slowdown in the transportation market.
Fuel could add another layer.
“While fuel is mostly a pass-through expense, deadhead mileage in a soft market is often absorbed by the carrier,” C.H. Robinson said. “When fuel prices are low, those extra miles are less burdensome. If fuel prices were to rise meaningfully, however, the pressure on carrier operating costs would intensify.”
Freight market
The next few months will clarify the extent to which tariff-driven inflation may impact manufacturing.
U.S. manufacturing activity contracted at a slightly slower pace, with new orders growth the biggest factor.
Wholesalers frontloaded inventories to get ahead of tariffs. However, those inventories are starting to rise again, potentially due to weak demand overall.
Despite mixed signals, overall intermodal volumes are close to last year’s levels. LL
Read more Land Line business news.
Credit: Source link
