The employment situation for truck drivers was relatively normal in August. However, some economists remain cautiously optimistic as trade policy volatility has created a lot of uncertainty.
According to the latest government data, nearly 1,000 truck drivers were removed from the workforce in August. So far this year, trucking employment has recorded four months of net losses and four of net gains.
Overall, there are thousands more truck drivers on the road. Both year-to-date and year-over-year, there are about 6,000 more trucking jobs. Most of them came in March, when truck driving employment saw its biggest boost in nearly three years as businesses prepped for tariffs anticipated to go into effect in April.
In August, conditions were more stable compared to previous months. David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics, pointed to higher summertime rates, steady diesel prices and less tariff-related volatility.
Revised government data reflect that volatility. In June, 4,400 truck drivers were added to the economy. The following month, exactly 4,400 truck driving jobs were lost.
Spencer questioned how oversupplied the market is, considering the strong seasonal response to Labor Day. Reports of demand slowing suggested there could be some relief from rate and load rejection volatility.
As for truck drivers, the rest of the year may likely see continued fluctuations in employment.
“With the outlook for near-term demand seemingly weak, it would follow that we would expect to see more capacity bleed out of the market, leading to continued job losses in the space,” Spencer said. “However, the tail end of the year typically enables a better rate environment for carriers, which could help to create more stability over the next few months.”
Class 8 truck order data from ACT Research reveals more pessimistic conditions. In August, orders were down 19% compared to the previous year. Tim Denoyer, vice president and senior analyst at ACT Research, said “regulatory uncertainty, tariffs and elevated interest rates” have weakened vocational demand.
“A beleaguered for-hire market continues to weigh on Class 8 orders,” Denoyer said. “With elevated uncertainty, particularly around equipment costs, and soft activity in housing and broad freight demand outside of pre-tariff activity, this environment may persist.”
Accounting for all transportation-sector jobs, employment was up by nearly 4,000 jobs. That was largely the result of 3,700 more couriers and messengers. Not counting that subsector, transportation jobs were virtually unchanged.
Across all industries, only 22,000 jobs were added to the economy. That falls way short of the projected 80,000 jobs, according to financial data company FactSet. The 12-month average is 128,000 jobs.
The unemployment rate ticked up from 4.2% to 4.3%. For the transportation sector, the unemployment rate shot up by 1.1 percentage points to 5.9% compared to last August. This is still above the pre-pandemic level of 2.8% in December 2019. However, it is far below the high of 15.7% in May and July 2020. The unemployment rate for transportation and material-moving jobs rose 0.5 percentage points to 6.5%. LL
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