Date: September 03, 2025 | Author: SJ Munoz | Category: News
At one time, signs pointed to a freight market recovery in early 2025.
Then, it was mid-2025.
Unfortunately, that timeline has changed again.
In its August outlook, the OOIDA Foundation said the market might not recover until mid-2026.
That Foundation report indicated weakening demand, flat rates, rising operating costs and loosening capacity.
“While the Fed has hinted at a possible rate cut in September, we’re doubtful that it will revive manufacturing, especially with hundreds of products recently being added to the steel and aluminum tariffs,” the Foundation said.
Those tariffs could impact $320 billion worth of imports, industry analysts estimate.
Van market
Demand was down in half of regions, including a 29% drop in the Southeast. Of the increases, the Mountain Central region surged 35% month-over-month.
Rates were up in a majority of regions.
The Dry Van Composite Index also increased, driven by food manufacturing, miscellaneous manufacturing and miscellaneous non-durable goods wholesaling.
Flatbed market
The regions that decreased in demand represent a disproportionately large share of the market sector, while rates were down in all but one region.
An increase in cement and concrete production as well as oil and gas manufacturing drove July’s rise in the Flatbed Composite Index.
Reefer market
While demand was higher in five of six regions, the disproportionate decrease in the Southeast region led to an overall decrease in demand.
Spot rates moved contrary to demand and increased month-over-month.
Market increases correlated with food manufacturing and grocery and related product wholesaling.
Trucking market
The Cass Shipment Index fell month-over-month and year-over-year.
“As the economy is likely to absorb the effects of tariffs over the next several months, our freight demand outlook remains cautious,” Cass said. “The silver lining of lower vehicle production and lost manufacturing jobs is that tighter capacity will likely drive freight back to the for-hire market next year.”
Estimated for-hire carrier entries went up, while employment for general freight trucking decreased.
According to the Logistics Managers’ Index, transportation capacity and prices remained fairly flat.
While tariffs typically lower fuel demand, refinery maintenance and outages, unexpected demand, sanctions and low inventory levels have caused diesel prices to rise, the Foundation said.
Retail used truck sales outperformed seasonality, but auction sales and wholesale did not.
Freight market
Manufacturing activity decreased after contractions in beverage and tobacco product, chemical, paper, primary metals and machinery.
The Foundation said the next couple of months will clarify the extent to which tariff-driven inflation may be impacting manufacturing.
Demand indicators improved overall, while the employment index dropped further into contraction and inputs moved closer to contraction.
C.H. Robinson reported the National Retail Federal is forecasting double-digit declines in import volumes from mid-August through November.
However, many shippers maintained standard import timelines because their suppliers in Asia couldn’t ramp up production during the 90-day pause or due to optimism on a possible trade deal with China.
The full Foundation August report is available online. LL
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