Thousands of jobs in trucking and related transportation subsectors disappeared in May as the effects of President Donald Trump’s global trade war have begun to set in.
According to the latest numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nearly 1,000 truck driver jobs were eliminated from the economy in May. Although this marks the third monthly loss in six months, trucking jobs are still up year-to-date and year-to-year.
Employment in the trucking industry hit an all-time high in July 2022 after a flood of new carriers took advantage of high freight rates caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. With economic activity cooling down to pre-pandemic levels, the industry has been trying to purge itself of the excess drivers.
Trucking driver jobs have been dropping nearly every month since July 2022. However, Trump’s announcement of tariffs earlier this year prompted businesses to frontload inventories ahead of the new import tax. A trade war created higher freight demand, increasing trucking jobs in the first quarter.
Revised data reveals that truck driver employment increased by 8,000 in March and more than 2,000 in April. Last month, the streak of job losses returned. However, the updated numbers indicate stronger growth in March and April than previously reported, making May’s report the first in two years to show year-over-year growth.
David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics, told Land Line that the trade war and tariffs are likely behind the employment volatility this year.
On several occasions, Trump walked back tariffs only to reinstate them again.
“I expect any sustained high tariff environment will not only impact transportation demand directly through import levels but also weigh on the consumer, further reducing demand,” Spencer said. “Any tariff relief will likely result in more stable demand and employment levels. As I stated last month, the uncertainty around tariffs alone will likely lead to job stability as carriers will do everything they can to retain quality drivers. Challenges with hiring drivers during Covid are still fresh in their minds.”
On May 28, the Court of International Trade ruled that Trump unlawfully imposed certain tariffs, effectively blocking the federal government from enforcing them. However, the Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit quickly put that judgment on hold while the Trump administration appeals the decision, thereby reinstating the tariffs. A final court decision could significantly alter the course of the trade war.
Zooming out, trucking jobs are up by more than 9,000 in just the past three months after the global trade war increased freight demand in the first quarter. Compared to the July 2022 employment peak, there are 62,500 fewer truck driver jobs.
Accounting for all transportation-sector jobs, employment increased by nearly 6,000 jobs in May. The net increase comes despite warehousing and storage jobs plummeting by more than 5,000, likely reflecting the effects of the trade war seen in truck driver jobs.
There was also a nearly 2,000-job decrease in the support activities for transportation subsector. Those losses were offset by 6,500 more courier and messenger jobs, 4,000 more air transportation jobs and smaller employment increases across all other subsectors.
Updated data paints a drastically different picture than what was portrayed in April’s employment report. Initially, there were nearly 3,000 more transportation jobs in March and 29,000 more in April. Revised numbers reveal a loss of 21,000 jobs in March and 8,000 fewer jobs in April, shifting the narrative from a large two-month gain of nearly 32,000 jobs to a two-month loss of nearly 29,000 jobs.
Month to month, wages were down in May. Average weekly earnings of all employees in the transportation and warehousing sector were down by nearly $1 to $1,205.38 after a large $7.75 increase in April. Compared to May 2024, hourly earnings increased to $31.39 from $30.55. Accounting only for production and nonsupervisory employees, average weekly earnings dropped by $7 to $1,130.88 after rising sharply, by $10, the previous month. Hourly wages were up by 76 cents, to $29.76, compared to a year prior.
Across all industries, the nation gained 139,000 jobs, exceeding the estimated increase of only 130,000 jobs, according to financial data company FactSet. However, May’s numbers indicate hiring is cooling down when compared to April’s increase of 147,000 jobs.
The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%. Compared to the previous year, the unemployment rate for the transportation sector fell by 1.1 percentage points to 4.4%. That was still above the pre-pandemic December 2019 level of 2.8% and May 2019 level of 4.3% but far below the 15.7% high in May and July 2020. However, the unemployment rate for transportation and material-moving occupations across all sectors edged up 0.1 percentage point to 5.8%. LL
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