We have mixed indicators to consider this week, with for-hire truck tonnage giving back gains from early in 2025 while the spot market surged thanks to the Roadcheck inspection blitz.
Trailer orders are in a rut, as fleets continue to be cautious about how they deploy capital. Trucking conditions improved in March, but industry forecaster FTR warns there are tougher times ahead as the impact of tariffs is felt along the supply chain.
For-hire tonnage drops
For-hire truck tonnage in the U.S. slipped 0.3% in April, on the heels of a 1.5% decline in March, wiping out much of the gains from the beginning of the year.
“After surging 2.8% in February, and hitting the highest level since late May 2024, tonnage fell a combined 1.8% in March and April,” said ATA chief economist Bob Costello.
“Unfortunately, a recovery that was expected this year hasn’t transpired as the industry deals with a freight market in flux from tariffs and softening economic indicators.”
Trucking conditions went positive in March
FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index entered positive territory in March, with a 0.28 reading, up from -0.21 in February.
The industry forecaster credits stronger freight volumes and lower fuel costs, but those were offset by weaker rates. FTR is projecting a deterioration of trucking conditions due to the effect of tariffs.
“Overall market conditions were unusually stable in March, although freight rates remained weak. After a strong first quarter in freight volume – at least partially due to a pull-forward of imports in advance of tariffs – we expect more volatility in the months ahead as shippers respond to U.S. trade policy shifts,” noted Avery Vise, FTR’s vice-president of trucking.
“The recent short-term agreement between the U.S. and China greatly reduces the potential near-term hit to freight volumes, but we still expect uncertainty and higher costs for consumers to be drags on the economy and freight. One wild card we will watch closely is whether renewed scrutiny concerning truck drivers’ English language skills and non-domicile CDLs will affect the driver supply significantly.”
Trailer orders plunged in April
Fleets remain hesitant to buy new equipment, particularly trailers. FTR reported preliminary net trailer orders of 10,669 units in April, down 50% from March volumes and 23% year over year.
“U.S. tariffs and potential retaliatory measures will significantly impact the U.S. trailer market, raising costs for imported materials and affecting domestic production. OEMs and suppliers can expect higher production costs, reduced margins, and potentially softer demand, prompting some potential shifts toward local sourcing or domestic manufacturing,” said Dan Moyer, FTR’s commercial vehicle analyst.
“Some fleets may delay new trailer purchases – reflected in the sharp decline in April net orders – and extend equipment lifecycles, boosting aftermarket activity. Rising costs might also encourage limited industry consolidation, creating acquisition opportunities for larger manufacturers. Trailer industry participants that proactively manage supply chain disruptions and pricing pressures may gain a competitive advantage.”
ACT Research reported a 57% drop from March levels at 9,400 units, 32% below year-ago levels.
“After an upside surprise in March, lower April net order intake was expected, as it is one of the weaker order months of the annual cycle. More concerning given the state of industry backlogs, but again not surprising, was that this April’s net orders were well below last April’s order intake, which itself was a muted year,” said Jennifer McNealy, director, commercial vehicle market research and publications at ACT Research.
“With weak for-hire truck market fundamentals, low used equipment valuations, relatively full inventories, high interest rates, and the ambiguity of policy shifts still in play, ACT’s expectations for subdued build and order intake levels during 2025 remain intact. While speculative, what we thought may have happened in March was a pull-forward of orders in advance of possible tariff-related cost increases to come. While good news for last month, pull-forward, if that is the case, means orders placed will not need to be placed at a later date, and may be a contributing factor to the greater-than-expected drop in April.”
Spot market gets expected rate surge during Roadcheck week
As is usually the case, spot market rates spiked during the week ended May 16, thanks to the International Roadcheck inspection blitz that routinely sees plenty of truckers taking a few days off.
“Roadcheck, which was held May 13-15, always greatly disrupts the overall truck freight market as drivers seek to avoid the additional hassle and scrutiny, and sharply stronger spot rates and volume are the norm for the week,” Truckstop reported.
“Both dry van and refrigerated spot rates posted their largest week-over-week increases since International Roadcheck in May 2023. However, flatbed spot rates declined, which is quite unusual for Roadcheck week. In recent years, Roadcheck has tended to kick off a seasonal rise in dry van and refrigerated spot rates that lasts through the end of June.”
The Market Demand Increase rose to 111.9, its highest level in six weeks, thanks to a spike in load volumes and corresponding decrease in available trucks. Refrigerated carriers were the biggest benefactors.
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