The trucking industry is trapped in a cycle of perpetual driver churn, according to a new analysis from the OOIDA Foundation.
In a recently released white paper, “The Churn: A Brief Look at the Roots of High Driver Turnover in U.S. Trucking,” the research arm of the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association dispels the notion that there is a driver shortage and, instead, places the spotlight on annual turnover rates of 90% or higher for major truckload carriers.
“Only by understanding the systemic and structural reasons for churn can industry and policymakers begin to allow genuine market forces to work toward a more sustainable equilibrium – one where driving a truck is a viable, even desirable long-term occupation, not a grueling trial with razor-thin margins that one endures only until a better opportunity comes along,” the OOIDA Foundation wrote.
The American Trucking Associations has claimed for years that there has been a shortage of truck drivers. However, multiple studies have debunked the claims of a driver shortage.
A 2024 study from the National Academies of Sciences said that the idea of a driver shortage goes against the basic economic principles of supply and demand. Previous studies came from economics professor Stephen V. Burks and the U.S. Department of Labor. All of the studies revealed that there is not a shortage of truck drivers. Instead, any issues in the labor supply could be corrected by increasing wages.
Perpetual driver churn
According to the OOIDA Foundation, the roots of high driver turnover rates date back to deregulation through the Motor Carrier Act of 1980. Deregulation allowed thousands of new carriers to enter the market, leading to increased competition and reduced profit margins.
“This competitive landscape effectively eliminated companies’ ability to raise pay significantly without losing business, embedding high turnover as a standard business strategy,” the OOIDA Foundation wrote. “In today’s highly fragmented truckload sector, minimal differentiation among employers keeps drivers cycling between similar low-quality jobs or leaving the industry entirely rather than seeing substantial improvements in pay or conditions.”
Rather than a driver shortage, the OOIDA Foundation noted that what the industry is experiencing is high turnover that’s become the standard operating model for large carriers.
Why hasn’t it been corrected?
The OOIDA Foundation said that several intertwined factors mute the natural market corrections that would typically resolve labor shortages:
- Extreme competition: Intense competition restricts carriers from raising wages significantly without losing business.
- Labor supply inflation: Industry and government initiatives continually increase the labor pool through non-market means, artificially depressing wages.
- Regulatory loopholes: The overtime exemption for motor carriers and misclassification practices shift costs onto drivers, artificially suppressing market wages.
- Limited bargaining power: Fragmented and individually powerless drivers cannot negotiate better conditions effectively.
- Information asymmetry: Many new drivers enter the industry under misconceptions about earnings and conditions – ones sometimes intentionally fostered by dishonest parties – which maintains a high turnover cycle.
“The persistent churn in trucking results from systemic distortions rather than a genuine shortage,” the OOIDA Foundation wrote. “Addressing these foundational issues – realigning incentives, improving transparency and reforming exploitative practices – would allow genuine market corrections, fostering a more stable, sustainable workforce. Until then, the trucking industry remains trapped in a cycle of perpetual churn, undermining its long-term efficiency and safety.” LL
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