This was supposed to be the year the trucking industry, after two-plus years of freight recession, returned to normal. But nothing is normal about trucking in 2025.
We find ourselves embroiled in a trade war not of our making. Emissions regulations are being called into question. Instead of a rush to pre-buy trucks before 2027, demand for new equipment is muted, at best.
I empathize with the engine makers, who have already made significant investments to meet the now uncertain EPA27 NOx emissions standards. It’s unclear if those rules will go ahead, but if they don’t, there’s little incentive for fleets to shell out the heightened purchase price that’s anticipated to further reduce NOx.
After all, there aren’t significant performance benefits being promised. The benefit to the end-user comes in the form of government mandated extended warrantees on emissions-related components.
A $30,000 extended warranty isn’t going to excite many fleets. And how about the investments fleets have made in zero-emission vehicles? Battery-electric trucks are here to stay, but what will demand look like without the government-wielded stick that was forcing their adoption?
Advances in hydrogen fuel-cell-electric technology have also been disrupted. Nikola, the lone truck maker with a hydrogen fuel-cell-electric truck in production has gone under. What kind of support will the early adopters of those Nikola trucks receive?
Closer to home, Lion Electric faced a similar fate and is under creditor protection as it seeks a buyer. It’s future as an electric truck maker is in serious doubt, despite receiving millions in government funding. GM’s Bright Drop – built at its CAMI plant in Ingersoll, Ont. – will see reduced demand, causing the company to lay off Canadian workers and cut back production.
We’re getting hit from all directions.
Back to that trade war, Canada – and the provinces – have stood firm in the face of Trump’s tariffs. I can do without Kentucky bourbon for a while. But we must also be cautious about the more aggressive approaches we take to counter those tariffs.
B.C.’s plan to toll American trucks headed to Alaska is a bad idea. We have way more to lose than to gain if we start tolling trucks at the border. Access to the U.S. market is vital to Canadian trucking companies.
The U.S. trucking industry as a whole has also come out against the tariffs on Canadian goods. And it’s predominantly a Republican-leaning industry.
It is difficult to imagine anything good coming from this trade war. A void of leadership at the federal level hasn’t helped our cause.
American Trucking Associations chief economist Bob Costello gave us all hope last year, when he forecast a return to more normal operating conditions for trucking in 2025. He has had to revise that forecast, and now says the trade war could derail our anticipated return to some semblance of normalcy.
Trucking business leaders can be forgiven for not knowing what to do, or where to invest their capital. At the time, Costello’s prediction of a return to normal wasn’t very exciting. But normal, even boring, would be welcomed about now.
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