Outside of its natural gas forecast, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) largely maintained previous expectations in its February short-term energy outlook.
EIA expects OPEC+ production cuts to reduce global oil inventories and to keep crude oil prices near current levels through the first quarter of 2025. Global oil inventories will increase in the second half of 2025 through 2026, EIA said. The Brent crude oil price is forecast by EIA to average $74 per barrel in 2025 and $66 per barrel in 2026.
Global production of liquid fuels is expected to increase by 1.9 million barrels per day this year and by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2026.
EIA is not expecting Russian sanctions to significantly affect its oil production forecast.
U.S. markets
Distillate fuel oil consumption is forecast to increase by 4% in 2025 and to remain flat in 2026 due to GDP growth and increased industrial activity.
EIA is forecasting the national average diesel price per gallon will drop from $3.65 to $3.59 by the second quarter of 2025. It anticipates diesel prices will rise the rest of the year, reaching $3.68 per gallon by the end of 2025.
(H3) Fuel prices are updated daily on this Land Line resources page.
EIA expects electric generation to increase by 2% in 2025 and 1% in 2026, led by renewable energy growth. This would mean three consecutive years of growth for the first time since 2005-2007.
The natural gas spot price is expected to rise for the foreseeable future, increasing by 65 cents from EIA’s January forecast to $3.80/MMBtu. That price will reach $4.20/MMBtu in 2026, according to EIA.
| Overview | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | ||
| Brent crude oil (dollars per barrel) |
82 | 81 | 74 | 66 | ||
| U.S. crude oil production (million barrels per day) |
12.9 | 13.2 | 13.6 | 13.7 | ||
| Natural gas spot price (dollars per million BTU) |
2.50 | 2.20 | 3.80 | 4.20 | ||
| 2025 | 2026 | |||||
| Distillate fuel oil inventories (million barrels) | 112.2 | 108.9 | ||||
| Previous forecast | 118.4 | 114.4 | ||||
| Percentage change | -5.2% | -4.8% | ||||
| Henry Hub spot price (dollars per million British thermal units) | 3.80 | 4.20 | ||||
| Previous forecast | 3.10 | 4.00 | ||||
| Percentage change | 21% | 5% | ||||
| U.S. secondary coal inventories (million short tons) | 95 | 73 | ||||
| Previous forecast | 108 | 84 | ||||
| Percentage change | -11.7% | -13.3% | ||||
Note: Values in this table are rounded and may not match values in other tables in this report. Percentages are calculated from unrounded values.
The current STEO forecast was released Feb. 11.
The previous STEO forecast was released Jan.14.
The full EIA short-term energy outlook is available online. LL
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