There continue to be increasing signs that the trucking industry is turning a corner toward greater prosperity.
Trucking conditions reached their strongest levels since April 2022, according to FTR, while trailer orders received a bump. The Canadian spot market finished 2024 strong, with load volume growth and reduced capacity.
The U.S. spot market has also been strong, albeit severe winter weather has served as a tailwind.
Trucking conditions strongest since April 2022
Industry forecaster FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index jumped in November, to levels not seen since April 2022. The reading of 3.02 was up sharply from 0.49 in October, thanks to lower fuel costs and improving rates.
FTR is forecasting the freight market to be “consistently favorable for carriers” by the second quarter of this year.
“A few outliers aside, our forecast indicates positive TCI readings over the next couple of years, but it does not show the index more favorable for carriers than it was in November until the third quarter of this year,” said Avery Vise, FTR’s vice-president of trucking.
“The first half of 2025 still looks to be one of transition from the tough market of the past couple of years to one in which carriers have greater ability to achieve a desirable margin. We will be watching Trump administration policy initiatives closely for any developments that might shift the trajectory of the truck freight market.”
Trailer orders also on the rise
Optimism may be returning to fleets, as trailer orders in December jumped 11% at 25,334 units, according to FTR. That’s also up 7% year over year ad marks the strongest month since October 2023.
“In December, total trailer net orders significantly outpaced production, increasing backlogs to 104,725 units. The combination of rising backlogs and reduced production month over month pushed the backlog/build ratio up to 8.9 months – the highest level since January 2024,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles.
“While this increase is largely attributed to exceptionally low production levels, it also suggests easing pressure on OEMs to further scale back production in the near term. In 2024, North American Class 8 net orders rose 11% y/y while U.S. trailer net orders declined by 27% y/y. For-hire fleets (and, probably, private fleets, too) have prioritized investments in new power units over trailers, likely driven by reduced profitability or shifts in trade cycles.”
ACT Research, for its part, reported preliminary orders of 24,300 units, which was lower than last December.
“Though past the traditional peak, we’re still in the early stages of the 2025 order season, so this month’s uptick was expected,” said Jennifer McNealy, director of commercial vehicle market research with ACT Research.
She noted Q4 2024 orders were down about 24% over the same period last year, with full year orders down about 31%.
“Notwithstanding the order improvement in Q4 2024, ACT’s expectations for weak trailer demand relative to recent performance remain, as continuing weak for-hire truck market fundamentals, low used equipment valuations, relatively full dealer inventories, and high interest rates impede stronger activity, especially into early 2025,” McNealy added.
Canadian spot market ends year on high note
Loadlink has reported December spot market volumes were the strongest since March 2023. Freight availability soared 14% from November and was up 18% year over year, marking the strongest month of the year.
Meanwhile, capacity tightened, with truck postings dropping sharply. The truck-to-load ratio dropped to 2.24, from 3.19 in November and 3.68 last December, Loadlink reports.
This is the “the most significant drop in equipment postings since prior to January 2023,” the company indicated. The truck-to-load ratio dropped 13.3% from Q3 to Q4.
“While the December Freight Index indicates a strong finish to 2024, several factors will continue to shape the Canadian freight market in the coming months,” Loadlink said in a release.
“The December Freight Index reflects a dynamic and evolving Canadian freight market. Strong consumer demand, particularly during the holiday season, fueled significant freight volumes. This surge in demand, coupled with a continuing decline in available truck capacity, created a favorable environment for carriers. We anticipate high volumes to continue in January 2025 making the future appear bright for carriers looking to work within the spot market.”
U.S. market improves, too
And the spot market was strong south of the border as well. Truckstop and FTR Transportation Intelligence reported stronger-than-usual rate increases for the week ended Jan. 10.
Some of this can be attributed to sever winter weather throughout the U.S. Rates for all equipment types improved, with reefer rates reaching their highest levels in just over a year.
“Weather and a return to normal activity following the holidays likely were behind big increases in load availability and market stress during the week ended Jan. 10,” Truckstop reported. “Total load postings hit their highest level since March. The growth in load postings greatly outpaced that for truck postings, resulting in a Market Demand Index of 95.5, the highest since June 2022.”
ACT Research’s senior analyst Tim Denoyer had this to say about current spot market dynamics: “Winter weather has tightened the truckload spot market in January, and we see pre-tariff shipping supporting activity in 1H 2025. The DAT load/truck ratio is jumping off the charts amid winter storms, and while rates are rising, the aggregate spot rate, net fuel, is still up just 5% year over year.
“With supply slowing and demand growth continuing, we see room for a modest acceleration in rates in 2025. But weather and inventory building are temporary, and, of course, pull-forwards have paybacks.”
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