Autonomous, automated vehicles are facing quite a bit of skepticism and perhaps even some cynicism especially in light of high-profile accidents involving them.
Despite this Mordor Intelligence valued the autonomous vehicle market in 2021 as being worth around $19.5 billion. It predicts that the market will grow to $74.4 billion by 2027. Nevertheless, there remains among the public some questions about how safe they and there is concern that drivers will become more and more unskilled as more automation is introduced to cars and other modes of transportation.
Save drivers’ jobs
As with the Luddites of the 19th Century, who were weavers and textile workers opposed to the introduction of labor-saving machinery, there are also concerns that increasing automation of cars, lorries, taxis, vans and even buses, could cost driving jobs. This would lead to job descriptions being tweaked, suggests online used car trader Cinch in ways that professional drivers might not like. Essentially, the future is going to be automated and so it’s thought that drivers are going to just have to adapt as it is highly likely that everyone is heading towards an electric, self-driving future.
That said, Severin Bredahl-Banovic vice-president and head of solution architecture at HERE Technologies, believes it’s important to distinguish “self-driving vehicles from cars that are increasingly equipped with higher levels of automation”. He says the industry is gradually progressing through the levels of automation – Level 1 to fully autonomous Level 5.
He adds: “By 2027, we anticipate a broad sale of vehicles with Level 2 and 3 automated systems on board across markets, along with commercially available Level 4 vehicle systems in higher trim level vehicles. While pilots build, we believe that mass commercial adoption of Level 5, fully “self-driving” vehicles (operate anytime, everywhere) is still far away. However, some Level 5 applications that are being actively tested today (e.g., robo-taxi operations or hub-to-hub autonomous trucking) may commercialize much sooner than that.”
Mainstream in 2027
Llewellyn Kinch, CEO of MakeMyHouseGreen, predicts that it may be premature to say that every vehicle on the road in 2027 will be fully autonomous. However, he forecasts that self-driving cars will have transitioned from a novelty to a mainstream option for many consumers and businesses. “Infrastructural, regulatory, and technological advancements are converging, creating an environment where autonomy isn’t just feasible but, in many cases, preferred,” he claims.
So, will electrification and automation lead to the end of today’s driving professions? Kinch doesn’t think so. Autonomous driving technology will undoubtedly automate driving tasks. However, driving tasks, he argues, will evolve: “Taxi drivers, for instance, could become more like in-car concierges, focusing on passenger experience rather than navigation. Truck drivers might oversee fleets of autonomous trucks, ensuring they operate safely and efficiently, more as logistics managers than traditional drivers. Delivery drivers, especially in the last mile, might concentrate on ensuring prompt and accurate handoffs, customer service, or even assembling products. The onus is on these professionals to adapt to the changing landscape by acquiring new skills and embracing technology as a tool rather than a replacement.”
Tech aiding drivers today
Bredahl-Banovic the question about what the future holds for taxi, truck, and delivery drivers to be one for societies, governments, and industries to determine as a group. For now, investments in location technology enable truck, delivery, taxi and rideshare drivers to be equipped to do their jobs. Location data and services can aid drivers to be aware of real-time traffic conditions, shipping delays and inform drivers about the most optimal route for last mile deliveries of packages or passenger pick-ups or drop-offs. He argues that all this will be affected by shifting demographics and labor shortages, creating gaps that he believes will be filled by automated vehicles – including long-haul trucking.
Drivers: plenty left to do
“Even when you take away the task of driving from humans, there’s still plenty left to do,” says Nate Giraitis, design strategy principal at Futurice. This is because drivers often wear more than one hat, several in fact. Questions that arise from the concept of automation include: Who will keep it safe? Who will keep it clean? Who will keep it secure? Who will go the final mile? For each one he gives an encouraging response – including the example of the Docklands Light Railway in London.
“The Docklands Light Railroad (DLR) in London is one of many driverless tram and rail systems. However, that doesn’t mean there are no human staff. Instead, the train staff focus on passenger safety, assistance, and wellbeing. I hope this is a trend towards increasingly valuing the human element, when the perfunctory task of driving is managed autonomously.”
Kinch adds: “By 2027, autonomous cars will transition from conceptual marvels to a common sight on our roads. In this electrifying shift, the role of human drivers in professions like taxi services, trucking, and deliveries will need to evolve, moving away from traditional driving to roles that emphasize supervision, safety and service. As technology propels us into this new age, adaptability, ongoing education, and a focus on the irreplaceable human touch will be paramount for drivers to thrive in a world where the road ahead is as electrifying as it is automated.”
A future role for drivers
Giraitis concludes by reminding us that driving it’s always an enjoyable task. It can be monotonous, frustrating, and downright dangerous. He believes that many drivers value the other tasks of their jobs, and their other responsibilities. So, he argues that new service models that leverage user-centered design to understand and maximize this trade-off will have an easier time when it comes to social adoption. At the same time, he predicts that these models will elevate the role of the human in an autonomous world and there will be a role of some sort for drivers in the age of self-driving cars.
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